Group A: Croatia
Group B: Bulgaria, Denmark, Armenia
Group C: Sweden
Group D: Turkey, Romania, Hungary
Group E: Iceland, Slovenia
Group F: Russia, Portugal
Group G: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece
Group H: England, Ukraine, Montenegro
Group I: Spain, France
The point table for second place teams disregards results earned against the sixth-place finisher in the group so as not to disadvantage the five-team Group I runners-up. Below is the table as it currently stands. Three groups have already clinched a berth in the playoffs for their runners-up, with Sweden being the only team that will for certain be in the playoffs.
Greece 19 pts PO
Portugal 15 pts
Ukraine 15 pts
France 14 pts PO
Sweden 14 pts PO
Iceland 13 pts
Croatia 11 pts
Turkey 10 pts
Bulgaria 7 pts
Now, it is important to look at the minimum versus maximum point totals achievable by the second-place team in each group.
Group A: Croatia is guaranteed to finish in second position. However, it is not yet determined whether results against Wales, Scotland, or Macedonia will be wiped from the books since all three could still finish in sixth place. Croatia play Scotland in the last round. Macedonia play Serbia, and Wales play Belgium. Currently, Croatia have earned 6 of their 17 points against Wales, 6 against Macedonia, and 0 against Scotland. If Croatia and Macedonia lose this week, then Croatia will have only 11 points in the second-place table. If Croatia and Macedonia win, Croatia will jump up to 17 points in the second-place table.
Group B: Bulgaria, Denmark, Czech Republic, and Armenia are all possible second-place finishers in Group B. Bulgaria play Czech Republic, Denmark face sixth-place Malta, and Armenia take on Italy. Current second-place point totals are 10 (of 13) for Denmark, 9 (of 12) for Armenia, 7 (of 13) for Bulgaria, and 6 (of 12) for Czech Republic. Czech Republic have been eliminated due to not being able to be one the best eight second-place teams in Europe. The other three sides all must win on Tuesday in order to have any hope.
Group C: Faroe Islands are guaranteed to finish sixth and Sweden are guaranteed second place. Sweden play Germany on the last matchday. Sweden can go from 14 points in the second-place table up to 17 with a victory.
Group D: All three nominees for second-place are at home for the final matchday. Hungary take on Andorra, Romania face Estonia, and Turkey welcome Netherlands. Andorra are the sixth-place side guaranteed. Turkey and Romania both have 10 second-place points (out of 16) whereas Hungary have 11 second-place points (out of 14). Realistically with their poor goal differential, Hungary need to win and have the other two sides lose to survive Tuesday.
Group E: Iceland and Slovenia hit the road on Tuesday. Iceland go to Norway and Slovenia go to group winners Switzerland. Cyprus is the sixth-place side in the group. Iceland have 13 second-place points (out of 16) and Slovenia have 9 (out of 15). Both teams would climb up the second-place table with points on Tuesday. Slovenia would win second-place with a draw and an Iceland loss due to a superior goal differential.
Group F: Russia lead Portugal by three points at the summit with no challengers for the playoff position. However, three teams could still finish in sixth-place just to make the math difficult. Russia finish with Azerbaijan, Portugal finish with Luxembourg, and Northern Ireland take on Israel. Russia have taken 3 of their 21 points from Azerbaijan, 3 from Northern Ireland, and 6 from Luxembourg. Portugal have taken 6 of their 18 points from Azerbaijan, 4 from Northern Ireland, and 3 from Luxembourg. If Portugal are to win the group, they have to defeat Luxembourg and have Russia lose, which would put Luxembourg in sixth place. Russia would have 15 points in the second-place table. A Portugal win locks them in with 15 second-place points, but a loss coupled with Russia and Northern Ireland wins would drop them down to 12 second-place points.
Group G: Bosnia and Greece are tied at 22 points. The sixth-placed team is Liechtenstein. Greece play Liechtenstein on Tuesday, so they are locked on 19 second-place points. If Bosnia lose to Lithuania on Tuesday, Bosnia would remain on 16 second-place points.
Group H: England cannot finish worse than second. Montenegro cannot finish better than second. Ukraine are still in the mix for both first and second place. England close with Poland on Tuesday, Montenegro face Moldova, and Ukraine finish against sixth-place San Marino. In the second-place table, Ukraine have 15 points (out of 18), England have 13 points (out of 19), and Montenegro have 9 points (out of 15). Ukraine are locked on 15, but the other two sides can add points.
Group I: This is the simple group with no sixth-place team. Spain have 17 points currently with a match to come against Georgia. France have 14 points with a match to come against Finland. Spain would have to lose while France win in order to drop down to second-place.
Table of Maximum Points for a second-place finisher
G: Greece 19 points; Bosnia 16 points
C: Sweden 17 points
I: France/Spain 17 points
A: Croatia 17 points
H: England 16 points; Ukraine 15 points; Montenegro 12 points
E: Iceland 16 points; Slovenia 12 points
F: Portugal/Russia 15 points
D: Turkey/Romania 13 points; Hungary 11 points
B: Armenia 12 points; Bulgaria/Denmark 10 points; Czech Republic 9 points
Table of Minimum Points for teams that could finish in second place
G: Greece 19 points; Bosnia 16 points
I: Spain 17 points; France 14 points
H: Ukraine 15 points; England 13 points; Montenegro 9 points
F: Russia 15 points; Portugal 12 points
C: Sweden 14 points
E: Iceland 13 points; Slovenia 9 points
A: Croatia 11 points
D: Hungary 11 points; Turkey/Romania 10 points
B: Denmark 10 points; Armenia 9 points; Bulgaria 7 points; Czech Republic 6 points
Best possible table after Tuesday's matches
G: Greece/Bosnia 19 points
A: Croatia 17 points
C: Sweden 17 points
I: France 17 points
E: Iceland 16 points
F: Portugal/Russia 15 points
H: Ukraine 15 points
D: Turkey 13 points
B: Armenia 12 points
Worst possible table after Tuesday's matches
G: Bosnia 16 points
C: Sweden 14 points
I: France 14 points
F: Portugal 12 points
H: Montenegro 12 points
A: Croatia 11 points
D: Hungary/Turkey/Romania 11 points
E: Slovenia 10 points
B: Bulgaria 8 points
The takeaway is this: any team that has amassed 13 points in the second-place table is guaranteed a playoff berth should they finish in second-place whereas any team that maxes out at less than 10 points has no chance to survive. Czech Republic max out at 9 points and therefore have already been eliminated.
Teams that have clinched at least a playoff berth: Sweden (going to playoffs for certain), Russia, Bosnia, Greece, England, Spain, and France
Teams that will get a playoff berth if they finish in second place: Iceland, Ukraine
Now, it is time to predict how the final day will play out. Czech Republic have been impressive on the road so far in Group B with two wins, one draw, and a one-goal loss to Italy. I foresee a draw between Czech Republic and Bulgaria with Denmark snatching second-place with a victory over Malta, giving Denmark 10 points as a second-place team. This means that all the other groups' second-place teams get a playoff berth for certain except for Group E's. I cannot foresee Slovenia defeating Switzerland, and I cannot foresee Iceland losing to already-eliminated Norway given what it would mean to their country to make it to the playoffs. Therefore, Iceland will get second-place with at least 14 points, eliminating Denmark. Russia, Bosnia, England, and Spain all win to lock up their group titles on Tuesday. In the battle for Group D's playoff spot, Romania will defeat Estonia, eliminating Hungary. Turkey will not defeat Netherlands, giving Romania second place.
Group Winners: Russia, Bosnia, England, Spain
Playoff Berths: Croatia, Sweden, Romania, Iceland, Portugal, Greece, Ukraine, France
Eliminated: Bulgaria, Denmark, Armenia, Turkey, Hungary, Slovenia, Montenegro
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