With fifteen series from which to choose and with all thirty teams playing on the same two matchdays, what is a fan to do when deciding what to watch for in the second round of 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifying in Asia? Divide and conquer, that's what. The series have been split into four categories based on the potential chances of the higher seed winning. The higher seed is listed first in each matchup. The number before the team name is the team's ELO rating.The Sure Bets:
156 Lebanon vs. 189 Bangladesh
Lebanon, the lowest-ranked of the higher seeds, were fortunate in the draw not to receive an opponent with better credentials than Lebanon themselves. Lebanon would not have been favored to defeat Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, or the Philippines, but Lebanon avoid the Southeast Asian emerging powers and instead draw Bangladesh. Lebanon just got annihilated 6-2 by the United Arab Emirates in a friendly but should still be too strong for Bangladesh, barring monsoon weather that severely tilts the second leg at Dhaka into Bangladesh's favor.
48 China vs. 204 Laos
China, 2002 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, draw the easiest opponent in Laos, a team which needed extra time to eliminate Cambodia in the previous round. Look for China's attacking midfielder Hao Junmin to break out in this series.
75 Oman vs. 183 Myanmar
Oman, the 2009 Gulf Cup champions, have hit some hard times recently, but luckily for them they are facing one of the weaker sides remaining and should advance without too much trouble.
66 Saudi Arabia vs. 155 Hong Kong
Saudi Arabia are a team looking for redemption after finishing last place in their group at the 2011 AFC Asian Cup. Two wins against Hong Kong will get Saudi Arabia into the preliminary draw, but the redemption will not be earned until later in the tournament.
33 Iran vs. 166 Maldives
Iran proved themselves to be on the path to recovery from their 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifying issues with a first-place group finish at the 2011 AFC Asian Cup. The Maldives will be no match, but surely Iran are glad they get to visit the tropical paradise for the second leg. Look for Iran striker Gholamreza Rezaei to have a field day in this second round series.
64 Iraq vs. 135 Yemen
Iraq were quarterfinalists at the 2011 AFC Asian Cup and feature star Nashat Akram, he of the 100 caps, in their midfield. Expect to see more of him in the subsequent rounds of the tournament after Yemen give way.
68 Uzbekistan vs. 168 Kyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan are simply the strongest side taking part in the AFC Second Round of qualifying. Uzbekistan were semifinalists at the 2011 AFC Asian Cup and will show no mercy toward neighboring Kyrgyzstan. Odil Ahmedov is perhaps the best midfielder in Asia at the moment, and the forwards in front of him are experienced veterans of the European leagues, including Maksim Shatskikh (joint Asian topscorer in 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifying) and Alexander Geynrikh.
79 Jordan vs. 187 Nepal
Nepal must be thrilled to have advanced this far, but 2011 AFC Asian Cup quarterfinalists Jordan and their midfielder Hasan Abdel Fattah will have no problems eliminating them. Abdel Fattah has already scored in five games for Jordan this year alone.
The Potentially Tricky:
108 Thailand vs. 152 Palestine
Thailand missed out of the 2011 AFC Asian Cup, its first time missing the tournament in six editions. With time to stew on this failure, perhaps 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifying's Asian joint topscorer Sarayuth Chaikamdee will be fully motivated to make sure Thailand can correct their recent history and write new positive chapters. Palestine will be a tough out and will be riding the high of finally getting to play matches in front of a home crowd, a factor that will surely play into Palestine's hands during the second leg.
72 Syria vs. 130 Tajikistan
Syria upset Saudi Arabia in the 2011 AFC Asian Cup but still managed only third place in their group behind Jordan and Japan. Syria are maddeningly inconsistent, but their opponents Tajikistan are maddeningly unknown. Tajikistan are part of Central Asia, which has no regional championship and did not participate in 2011 AFC Asian Cup qualifying. Syria should expect to come through, but crazier things have happened.
96 United Arab Emirates vs. 147 India
Special preview upcoming.
The Upset Possibilities:
67 Kuwait vs. 180 Philippines
It is really saying something to claim that the 2010 West Asian Football Federation and 2010 Gulf Cup of Nations champions Kuwait could be upset, but after Kuwait's poor form at the 2011 AFC Asian Cup (three losses) and the resurgence of the Philippines, the impossible has become plausible. The Azkals have been playing very well as of late and feature two players based in Germany and two based in England, including young Fulham goalkeeper Neil Etheridge. Kuwait cannot play at a level too far below their best and expect to waltz over the Philippines, but Kuwait wins if they play to their ability.
73 Qatar vs. 139 Vietnam
2011 AFC Asian cup quarterfinalists Qatar feel they could have done better considering that in the quarterfinal they led eventual champions Japan at home by a score of 2-1 with only twenty minutes left to play. However, concern arises when we realize that Qatar have yet to win a match this year and lost to India in Doha on 17 July 2011, less than a week before their opener against Vietnam. Vietnam are riding high after romping all over Macau in the first round by an aggregate score of 13-1. It is not so much that victory that gives Vietnam confidence but rather the sensation of seeing so many goals enter an opponent's net. That goal-scoring sensation remains in the gut of 7-goal scorer Le Cong Vinh, which makes Vietnam a dangerous opponent for a floundering Qatar.
The Toss Ups:
116 Turkmenistan vs. 132 Indonesia
This matchup is a toss up because both teams are unknown quantities with decently similar rankings. Both will be glad not to have drawn a more difficult opponent, so both will be under some pressure to advance that neither side feels on a regular basis. Indonesia were 2010 AFF Suzuki Cup finalists, losing out to Malaysia in the final. Turkmenistan were 2010 AFC Challenge Cup finalists, losing out to North Korea on penalty kicks. Indonesia have no foreign-based players and Turkmenistan feature quite few. Turkmenistan is the precarious pick.
129 Singapore vs. 145 Malaysia
Up until their poor performance against Taiwan in the previous round, I would have picked Malaysia as the one lower seed I was sure would win its second round series. Malaysia won the 2010 AFF Suzuki Cup, the championship of Southeast Asia. Singapore could not even advance past the group stages in that same tournament. However, the 4-4 aggregate tie with Taiwan is a worrisome sign for Malaysia coming into the next round (Malaysia won on road goals). I believe that Malaysia were looking past Taiwan and toward their rivalry showdown against Singapore, so the focus was lacking. That will not be the case against Singapore. Malaysia should win the series and become the only lower seed to advance to the third round of qualifying.
Previews:
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1475388/index.html (Malaysia v. Singapore)
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1142016/1/.html (Malaysia v. Singapore)
http://www.mehrnews.com/en/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=1364587 (Iran v. Maldives)
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