Preview: Round of Sixteen

After having completed 868 matches, the knockout stage of the 2014 FIFA World Cup is finally upon us. Brasil have only played three matches to get to this point, but the other fifteen remaining teams have all gone through long and often tumultuous journeys to make it through to this stage. Uruguay had to fight through twenty-one matches to reach this stage, the most of any side. This truly has been a tournament of the Americas, with five South American and three North American sides getting through to the final sixteen, both record totals. Two African teams join in the fun, and only six European teams have survived the journey here. Greece and Algeria are both making their debuts in the knockout stage after their surprising performances in the group stage. Colombia have gone from a team few believed would even qualify for Brasil 2014 when qualifying began to a team favored to reach the quarterfinals.

 

In the first match, Brasil face Chile for the second consecutive time in a Round of Sixteen affair. Brasil have gone undefeated throughout their short appearance in this tournament, but they did win the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup in convincing fashion last summer and have put their poor 2011 Copa America well in the rearview mirror. They find themselves in the CONMEBOL quarter of the bracket. Their first challenger is La Roja, a team that ended Spain's run with a solid 2-0 victory, but a team that could not find the inspiration in their final group stage matchup with Netherlands, a 2-0 loss. Chile have an element on controlled craziness that is a joy to watch, with both fullbacks (Eugenio Mena and Mauricio Isla) always blazing up and down the flanks while Arturo Vidal is bossing their midfield. Brasil did not deal masterfully with a soft group, but they did win the section and Neymar is on a goal-scoring tear. Brasil smacked Chile around in the 2010 FIFA World Cup, defeating Chile all three times they played them by multiple goals, including 3-0 in the knockout stage. Expect Brasil to advance.

In the next match, tournament darlings and superstar midfielder James Rodriguez ride their wave of momentum into their first Round Sixteen appearance since 1990. They have also danced their way into our hearts. Plus, they have the two oldest men playing in the tournament. Basically, they win over the neutral fans using many different angles. However, they have never won a match after the group stage of a FIFA World Cup. They take on Uruguay, the 2011 Copa America champions and returning semifinalists from South Africa 2010. Will the lack of big-match experience come into play and haunt the Colombians? Uruguay will be without Luis Suarez, who was suspended for the remainder of this tournament and beyond for biting an opponent in the previous match, but Uruguay have already won crucial matches without him. Suarez was suspended for Uruguay's 1-0 road victory away to Venezuela. Had they lost that match, Venezuela would have qualified for the intercontinental playoffs at Uruguay's expense. Uruguay defeated Colombia 2-0 in their most recent matchup during this very tournament, meaning the teams each won once and lost once against the other during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. La Celeste will be ready, but something tells me that the upstart Cafeteros will defeat an Uruguay team suffering from disciplinary problems and a lack of form from the brothers Diego (Forlan and Lugano). Colombia are the pick.

The juggernaut Netherlands team has returned from its run to the final match of South Africa 2010 with a vengeance. They smacked Spain around 5-1 in the rematch of that final match, and though they have slowed down a bit, they have taken the full nine points available to them this tournament. The absences of Kevin Strootman and Rafael van der Vaart have not hurt the Oranje one bit. Their three-man back line has been stout, and they look poised for another deep run. Their opponents Mexico have overcome a nearly disastrous 2013 to make it back to their sixth straight appearance in the Round of Sixteen. Defensive midfielder Jose Vasquez is out via a suspension for this match, but the team is nevertheless full of belief. Hector Herrera has been playing some inspired football as their midfield maestro, and goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa has at times looked like an impenetrable wall, holding opponents to one goal over three games in the group stage. However,  Mexico are currently saddled with a five-game losing streak in the Round of Sixteen over the past five tournaments. This will not be the time Mexico breaks the curse, for Netherlands are simply too strong in attack at the moment with Arjen Robben in particular looking deadset upon going one step better than at South Africa 2010 and winning the tournament.

In an absolutely shocking matchup, Costa Rica are favored to defeat Greece. Greece have never before made it to the knockout stage, but they have followed up their quarterfinal run at UEFA Euro 2012 nicely at this tournament, resolutely refusing to lose to Japan despite being down to ten men and not quitting on themselves in the final group match against Cote d'Ivoire in spite of conceding an equalizer deep into the second half of a match they had to win and did. Greece are the ultimate in counterattacking technology, which actually makes them incredibly frustrating to watch. Their are a team only their own fans can love. On the other hand, Costa Rica have the flair up front with Joel Campbell and Bryan Ruiz dazzling the crowds as they went unscathed through the toughest group at Brasil 2014. Their back five has been fantastic, and their goalkeeper Keylor Navas looks like the netminder of the tournament so far. Greece really do not provide much of an attacking threat, so if Costa Rica can avoid leaving too many openings on the counterattack, they should be fine. Los Ticos will make it to their first ever quarterfinal.

Day three of this stage opens with France taking on the 2013 African Cup of Nations champions Nigeria. Nigeria were fortunate to get the refereeing assistance they needed to defeat Bosnia in the group stage, and they looked very pathetic in their scoreless draw against Iran. However, their attack awoke from its slumber in the Argentina match, and now the Super Eagles look ready to become world-beaters. Nigeria have become a very mentally-strong side over the past two years, and the return of forward Peter Odemwingie to the fray has been a boon. France disgraced their Swiss rivals 5-2 in a very impressive victory in the group stage, and they will not be too bothered by their most recent outing, an underwhelming draw to Ecuador, a game in which they looked rather bored to be quite honest. Karim Benzema has regained his scoring touch, and the French have not been hampered by the loss of star midfielder Franck Ribery pre-finals. No one player is standing out for the French, evidenced by the fact that five different men scored in their demolition of Switzerland. Nigeria are the undisputed kings of Africa with the eliminations of Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire, but that does not change the consensus about this matchup. France should win, but it would surprise no one if the often overlooked Super Eagles find themselves in the quarterfinals. Nigeria are the pick here.

Germany had one bad outing in the group stage as they suffered mightily before drawing a Ghana team that lost its other two matches. However, Die Mannschaft is always a difficult task for any opponent, much less one making its debut in the knockout stage. Who can forget their 4-0 demolition of supposed group rivals Portugal in their opener? Philipp Lahm has been moved into the midfield and has done a fantastic job, and aside from the Ghana game their back four have looked impregnable. Yet another semifinal at a major tournament appears to be in their destiny. Algeria, a team that only qualified ahead of Burkina Faso on the away goals tiebreaker in a home-and-away series where they had to save a penalty kick in the first leg, is amazingly still alive in this tournament. After a timid performance in their opening match against Belgium, they have relaxed and played the attacking football for which the Fennec Foxes are renowned. They ran rampart over a weak South Korea side, and they held their nerve well in a draw over Russia, securing the result they needed from that match to advance. They are looking to repeat the 2-1 upset their forefathers sprung on West Germany at Spain 1982. Germany have other plans, however. As great as the storyline is for Algeria, Germany simply have too much talent and should win this match without too much trouble.

On the final day of the Round of Sixteen, the final South American nation plays. Argentina, winners of all three group matches by one-goal margins, have looked less than spectacular in every outing thus far, yet they have yet to drop points. Lionel Messi has carried the scoring burden by himself, netting four teams, with goals in every match so far during the finals. Argentina have lost only once with Messi playing during this tournament, and that was back in October 2011. Their opponents are Switzerland, a team that have a stoppage-time winner in their first match against Ecuador to thank for their berth in this round. Their heavy loss to France did not keep them down for long as they took Honduras to the woodshed in their group finale. That France loss was their only loss in thirteen matches during this tournament, and they are a dangerous side as they are the most recent team to have defeated Brasil. Xherdan Shaqiri is riding high after a hat trick his last outing, and the class of the numerous overseas imports featuring on the team is readily apparent to the casual viewer. This match should be rather close and should make for an entertaining affair, but somehow Argentina will sneak through and find themselves in yet another quarterfinal.

Belgium were perhaps the least impressive team ever to amass the full complement of nine points from a group stage. Still, they amassed the full nine points are a fancied to make a deep run at Brasil 2014 after a twelve-year absence from the finals of a major competition. Their supposed weakness, inexperience on the international stage, is undermined by their players' vast experience playing in huge matches at club level. Steven Defour is out via a red card suspension for this match, but he was never likely to factor into a knockout stage match anyhow. Belgium managed to eke out all three wins in the group stage by one goal, the third victory completed with only ten men on the field for the second half. Talismanic winger Eden Hazard has largely been invisible but has a tendency to pop up when it counts the most, as he did to score a late winner against Russia. United States of America are into the Round of Sixteen for a second straight tournament. They have plenty of positive experiences in knockout stages, having made it to the finals of six international tournaments since 2005, winning three of them, most recently the 2013 CONCACAF Gold Cup. They navigated the second toughest group decently well, defeating nemesis Ghana and then having victory snatched away with the last kick of the match by Portugal. A lackluster effort in defeat to Germany in the group finale and an awful tournament from focal point midfielder Michael Bradley are causes for concern as is the injury to forward Jozy Altidore, but the attitude and effort are not. Jermaine Jones and Kyle Beckerman have been fantastic at the defensive midfield positions, and the Yanks are certainly more battled-tested from their group stage than are Belgium. Les Diables Rouges walked all over United States 4-2 in a friendly last year. Even so, the pick here is United States. Why, you ask? Surely, all that experience on the international stage must count for one upset victory over a team with only one player with any prior tournament experience as a member of his national side.

28 June 2014
Chile at Brasil 11:00 Belo Horizonte
Colombia vs. Uruguay 15:00 Rio de Janeiro

29 June 2014
Netherlands vs. Mexico 11:00 Fortaleza
Costa Rica vs. Greece 15:00 Recife

30 June 2014
France vs. Nigeria 11:00 Brasilia
Germany vs. Algeria 15:00 Porto Alegre

1 July 2014
Argentina vs. Switzerland 11:00 Sao Paulo
Belgium vs. United States of America 15:00 Salvador

Preview: Intercontinental Playoffs

The intercontinental playoffs are a rare treat in the world of international football.  These two series are the only four matches in a four-year period that feature competitive matches between teams from different confederations that do not take place in a neutral host country.  The FIFA Confederations Cup, the FIFA World Cup, and even the Olympics all take place at neutral sites.  Qualifying matches for continental finals and for the FIFA World Cup take place before partisan crowds, but they feature matches among teams from the same confederation.  Only the intercontinental playoffs provide fans the chance to show partisan support for their home teams as they take on unfamiliar foes from other regions of the world.

Due to the long distances between Amman and Montevideo, and Mexico City and Wellington, these series take place over an eight-day period rather than the more typical five-day period offered by the international matchday windows.  This is to compensate for long travel times and to allow for better acclimatization as the teams explore different parts of the Earth.

Mexico are the negative surprise package of the bunch.  Few would have predicted that the team seeded first in North America at the start of the tournament would finish as low as fourth position.  Even more surprising was the fact the Mexico were a mere three minutes from being eliminated in fifth position before the United States of America turned around their final qualifier against Panama in the final moments to deny Panama a berth in these intercontinental playoffs.  Mexico have just switched to their fourth different coach since September.  In fact, no foreign-based players have been called up by the new coach due to the lack of good performances in qualifying produced by the European-based stars of El Tri.  Even the formerly mystical home field advantage of the Estadio Azteca has been shredded by a run of only one victory from five home qualifiers in 2013.  However, the all-local side did defeat Finland in a recent friendly.  They also are somewhat familiar with New Zealand, having played and won two friendlies against the Kiwis in the past four years.  The big question for Mexico is whether their inexperienced midfield can hold up over the two legs of this tie.  Only one midfielder on the roster has even ten caps.

New Zealand are the obvious participant in this round as few expected any other Oceania side to truly push New Zealand for superiority in qualifying.  Now, after eight months without playing a competitive match since finishing the Oceania campaign in March, the Kiwis finally get to face the pressure of a match that counts.  In 2009, New Zealand were able to hold Bahrain away before securing a classic 1-0 victory at home in the Westpac Stadium.  Unfortunately, New Zealand are missing stalwart captain and fullback Winston Reid due to injury, so they will have to make up for his absence.  With only six matches played this year, are the players familiar enough with each other to overcome Mexico?  New Zealand did defeat Saudi Arabia away two months ago.  With a roster full of A-League players along with England-based Tommy Smith and Chris Wood, the Kiwis will be looking to stay solid defensively on the road in the first leg.

Jordan are the positive surprise package of the bunch.  Few would have predicted that the team seeded thirteenth in Asia at the start of the tournament would finish in fifth position.  It was even a bit of a surprise to some that Jordan made it into the final ten given that they were in an AFC Third Round group with China and Iraq with only two tickets available to the final round.  Jordan have navigated through eighteen fixtures so far, including a pair of home-and-away aggregate-goals series such as the one they now face against Uruguay.  Jordan have won penalty shootouts in each of the past two FIFA World Cups, defeating Kyrgyzstan in 2007 and Uzbekistan in 2013 to qualify for these intercontinental playoffs.  No expectations will be weighing upon the Jordanians as they take on 2011 Copa America champions Uruguay.  Nearly the entire roster plays its club football in either Jordan or Kuwait.  Jordan have been impressive in two recent friendlies in the Middle East, defeating both the 2012 and 2013 African Cup of Nations champions by a score of 1-0.  Zambia and Nigeria may not quite match up to the standards of Uruguay, but Jordan are in good form at the moment.  They are unbeaten in their past ten matches, and have a record of ten wins and three draws at home in 2013.

Uruguay are the perennial qualifying underachievers of South America, but at least they are consistent in their bid to finish fifth place every cycle.  Two of Colombia, Paraguay, Ecuador, and Chile manage to finish ahead of Uruguay alongside Argentina and Brasil, yet Uruguay always manage to stay ahead of the other two in order to claim fifth position.  This time around with Brazil not taking part in qualifying, Uruguay managed only to surpass Paraguay, but that was enough.  La Celeste have a ridiculously long history with the intercontinental playoffs.  In 2001, Uruguay defeated Australia.  In 2005, Australia beat Uruguay in a penalty shootout.  In 2009, Uruguay defeated Costa Rica despite not winning their home leg at the Estadio Centenario.  Jordan appear to be the weakest of the four opponents Uruguay will have faced, but nothing should be taken for granted.  La Celeste's run to the semifinals of this year's FIFA Confederations Cup has really reinvigorated the national team.  Still, for a team that since June has defeated France, Venezuela, Nigeria, Japan, Peru, Colombia, and Argentina, underestimation of their opponents Jordan is the likeliest source of trouble.  Starting goalkeeper Fernando Muslera is out for this series.

Going by the ELO ratings, #24 Mexico are favorites to knock off #56 New Zealand for spot number thirty-one at Brasil 2014 while #7 Uruguay are huge favorites to knock off #59 Jordan and claim spot number thirty-two at Brasil 2014.  I expect those rankings to hold true.

Mexico will win their first leg at home by multiple goals.  Even if New Zealand manage to win at home, they will not win on aggregate.  Uruguay are simply too strong right now and will win both legs in order to claim not only the final berth at Brasil 2014 but also a place among the eight seeded teams.

Match Previews:
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/newsid=2222779/index.html?intcmp=newsreader_news_box_1
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/newsid=2222441/index.html

UEFA Second Place Table

Eight of the nine second-place teams in UEFA will advance to the UEFA Playoffs.  The ninth team will be eliminated unceremoniously and not given the second chance afforded the other eight squads.  First, let us look at which teams are in the running for the playoffs.  Currently, there are four berths left for group winners out of Groups F, G, H, and I.

Group A: Croatia
Group B: Bulgaria, Denmark, Armenia
Group C: Sweden
Group D: Turkey, Romania, Hungary
Group E: Iceland, Slovenia
Group F: Russia, Portugal
Group G: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece
Group H: England, Ukraine, Montenegro
Group I: Spain, France

The point table for second place teams disregards results earned against the sixth-place finisher in the group so as not to disadvantage the five-team Group I runners-up.  Below is the table as it currently stands.  Three groups have already clinched a berth in the playoffs for their runners-up, with Sweden being the only team that will for certain be in the playoffs.

Greece 19 pts PO
Portugal 15 pts
Ukraine 15 pts
France 14 pts PO
Sweden 14 pts PO
Iceland 13 pts
Croatia 11 pts
Turkey 10 pts
Bulgaria 7 pts

Now, it is important to look at the minimum versus maximum point totals achievable by the second-place team in each group.

Group A: Croatia is guaranteed to finish in second position.  However, it is not yet determined whether results against Wales, Scotland, or Macedonia will be wiped from the books since all three could still finish in sixth place.  Croatia play Scotland in the last round.  Macedonia play Serbia, and Wales play Belgium.  Currently, Croatia have earned 6 of their 17 points against Wales, 6 against Macedonia, and 0 against Scotland.  If Croatia and Macedonia lose this week, then Croatia will have only 11 points in the second-place table.  If Croatia and Macedonia win, Croatia will jump up to 17 points in the second-place table.

Group B: Bulgaria, Denmark, Czech Republic, and Armenia are all possible second-place finishers in Group B.  Bulgaria play Czech Republic, Denmark face sixth-place Malta, and Armenia take on Italy.  Current second-place point totals are 10 (of 13) for Denmark, 9 (of 12) for Armenia, 7 (of 13) for Bulgaria, and 6 (of 12) for Czech Republic.  Czech Republic have been eliminated due to not being able to be one the best eight second-place teams in Europe.  The other three sides all must win on Tuesday in order to have any hope.

Group C: Faroe Islands are guaranteed to finish sixth and Sweden are guaranteed second place.  Sweden play Germany on the last matchday.  Sweden can go from 14 points in the second-place table up to 17 with a victory.

Group D: All three nominees for second-place are at home for the final matchday.  Hungary take on Andorra, Romania face Estonia, and Turkey welcome Netherlands.  Andorra are the sixth-place side guaranteed.  Turkey and Romania both have 10 second-place points (out of 16) whereas Hungary have 11 second-place points (out of 14).  Realistically with their poor goal differential, Hungary need to win and have the other two sides lose to survive Tuesday.

Group E: Iceland and Slovenia hit the road on Tuesday.  Iceland go to Norway and Slovenia go to group winners Switzerland.  Cyprus is the sixth-place side in the group.  Iceland have 13 second-place points (out of 16) and Slovenia have 9 (out of 15).  Both teams would climb up the second-place table with points on Tuesday.  Slovenia would win second-place with a draw and an Iceland loss due to a superior goal differential.

Group F: Russia lead Portugal by three points at the summit with no challengers for the playoff position.  However, three teams could still finish in sixth-place just to make the math difficult.  Russia finish with Azerbaijan, Portugal finish with Luxembourg, and Northern Ireland take on Israel. Russia have taken 3 of their 21 points from Azerbaijan, 3 from Northern Ireland, and 6 from Luxembourg.  Portugal have taken 6 of their 18 points from Azerbaijan, 4 from Northern Ireland, and 3 from Luxembourg.  If Portugal are to win the group, they have to defeat Luxembourg and have Russia lose, which would put Luxembourg in sixth place.  Russia would have 15 points in the second-place table.  A Portugal win locks them in with 15 second-place points, but a loss coupled with Russia and Northern Ireland wins would drop them down to 12 second-place points.

Group G: Bosnia and Greece are tied at 22 points.  The sixth-placed team is Liechtenstein.  Greece play Liechtenstein on Tuesday, so they are locked on 19 second-place points.  If Bosnia lose to Lithuania on Tuesday, Bosnia would remain on 16 second-place points.

Group H: England cannot finish worse than second.  Montenegro cannot finish better than second.  Ukraine are still in the mix for both first and second place.  England close with Poland on Tuesday, Montenegro face Moldova, and Ukraine finish against sixth-place San Marino.  In the second-place table, Ukraine have 15 points (out of 18), England have 13 points (out of 19), and Montenegro have 9 points (out of 15).  Ukraine are locked on 15, but the other two sides can add points.

Group I: This is the simple group with no sixth-place team.  Spain have 17 points currently with a match to come against Georgia.  France have 14 points with a match to come against Finland.  Spain would have to lose while France win in order to drop down to second-place.

Table of Maximum Points for a second-place finisher
G: Greece 19 points; Bosnia 16 points
C: Sweden 17 points
I: France/Spain 17 points
A: Croatia 17 points
H: England 16 points; Ukraine 15 points; Montenegro 12 points
E: Iceland 16 points; Slovenia 12 points
F: Portugal/Russia 15 points
D: Turkey/Romania 13 points; Hungary 11 points
B: Armenia 12 points; Bulgaria/Denmark 10 points; Czech Republic 9 points

Table of Minimum Points for teams that could finish in second place
G: Greece 19 points; Bosnia 16 points
I: Spain 17 points; France 14 points
H: Ukraine 15 points; England 13 points; Montenegro 9 points
F: Russia 15 points; Portugal 12 points
C: Sweden 14 points
E: Iceland 13 points; Slovenia 9 points
A: Croatia 11 points
D: Hungary 11 points; Turkey/Romania 10 points
B: Denmark 10 points; Armenia 9 points; Bulgaria 7 points; Czech Republic 6 points

Best possible table after Tuesday's matches
G: Greece/Bosnia 19 points
A: Croatia 17 points
C: Sweden 17 points
I: France 17 points
E: Iceland 16 points
F: Portugal/Russia 15 points
H: Ukraine 15 points
D: Turkey 13 points
B: Armenia 12 points

Worst possible table after Tuesday's matches
G: Bosnia 16 points
C: Sweden 14 points
I: France 14 points
F: Portugal 12 points
H: Montenegro 12 points
A: Croatia 11 points
D: Hungary/Turkey/Romania 11 points
E: Slovenia 10 points
B: Bulgaria 8 points

The takeaway is this: any team that has amassed 13 points in the second-place table is guaranteed a playoff berth should they finish in second-place whereas any team that maxes out at less than 10 points has no chance to survive.  Czech Republic max out at 9 points and therefore have already been eliminated.

Teams that have clinched at least a playoff berth: Sweden (going to playoffs for certain), Russia, Bosnia, Greece, England, Spain, and France

Teams that will get a playoff berth if they finish in second place: Iceland, Ukraine

Now, it is time to predict how the final day will play out.  Czech Republic have been impressive on the road so far in Group B with two wins, one draw, and a one-goal loss to Italy.  I foresee a draw between Czech Republic and Bulgaria with Denmark snatching second-place with a victory over Malta, giving Denmark 10 points as a second-place team.  This means that all the other groups' second-place teams get a playoff berth for certain except for Group E's.  I cannot foresee Slovenia defeating Switzerland, and I cannot foresee Iceland losing to already-eliminated Norway given what it would mean to their country to make it to the playoffs.  Therefore, Iceland will get second-place with at least 14 points, eliminating Denmark.  Russia, Bosnia, England, and Spain all win to lock up their group titles on Tuesday.  In the battle for Group D's playoff spot, Romania will defeat Estonia, eliminating Hungary.  Turkey will not defeat Netherlands, giving Romania second place.

Group Winners: Russia, Bosnia, England, Spain
Playoff Berths: Croatia, Sweden, Romania, Iceland, Portugal, Greece, Ukraine, France
Eliminated: Bulgaria, Denmark, Armenia, Turkey, Hungary, Slovenia, Montenegro

Predictions: CONMEBOL qualifying

I will assign totals for the likelihood of a given outcome based on my analyses, predictions and premonitions about all remaining matches in the CONMEBOL qualifying group.

Once the percentages are assigned to each outcome, each match's result will be generated from a Random.org selection of one number between 1 and 100.  The home team's numbers will come first, then the tie, then the road team's numbers.  For example, a home team with 50% chance to win, 40% to tie, and 10% chance to lose will have the following numbers assigned to each outcome: 1-50 for win, 51-90 for tie, 91-100 for loss.

CONMEBOL Matchday 13
Bolivia host Venezuela at altitude.  The supposed fortress at La Paz has been under siege so far during this qualifying campaign, with Bolivia defeating only last-place Paraguay and slumping Uruguay for a 2-2-2 home record.  Venezuela won in their last two trips to La Paz.

Bolivia: 30   Tie: 30   Venezuela: 40

Argentina host Colombia in the middle of winter.  Argentina have only one loss in eleven qualifying matches, and that was in October 2011.  Argentina have won five of six home matches, and the one draw to Bolivia was due to referee error.  Colombia are a strong road team with three wins out of five matches, but this is Argentina of which we speak.

Argentina: 85   Tie: 13   Colombia: 2

Paraguay host Chile at Defensores del Chaco stadium.  Paraguay have shown little heart in this qualification campaing, but they have played only four home games against seven road games so far.  Chile have a 2-0 win already against Paraguay in the 2014 FIFA World Cup, along with two wins from six road matches.  Chile are averse to ties, so three points should be had here.

Paraguay: 38   Tie: 2   Chile: 60

Peru host red-hot Ecuador.  However, Ecuador's record is a bit deceiving and has been built on the backs of six home wins.  Ecuador have no wins in four road games, though they do have two ties.  Peru are historically very strong at home and so far have a 3-1-1 record, including a home win over Chile in their previous outing.

Peru: 55   Tie: 35   Ecuador: 10

CONMEBOL Matchday 14
Colombia host Peru on the heels of what is likely to be a two-game losing streak.  However, Colombia have been superb in their last three home games, winning by a combined margin of 11-0.  Peru are not a good road team and have four losses and one draw as visitors so far.

Colombia: 93   Tie: 5   Peru: 2

Ecuador host Argentina with their perfect home record on the line against the best team in CONMEBOL.  Argentina have a 2-2-1 road record with the sole loss coming at Venezuela in October 2011.  Ecuador did defeat Argentina in this fixture 2-0 in 2009.

Ecuador: 41   Tie: 34   Argentina: 25

Venezuela host Uruguay in the middle of summer.  Uruguay will be coming off a bye, but Luis Suarez is suspended for the match.  These teams have played to three consecutive ties.  Uruguay have been awful on the road with four losses and only one draw so far, and that was to last-place Paraguay.  Venezuela's record at home is 3-1-1.

Venezuela: 63   Tie: 34   Uruguay: 3

Chile host Bolivia.  Bolivia's road record is ugly.  They have four losses and their only draw was aided by referee error.  They are pretty much a lost cause away from La Paz.  Chile do have two home losses from five matches, but their opponents on those days were Argentina and Colombia, not Bolivia.

Chile: 97   Tie: 2   Bolivia: 1

CONMEBOL Matchday 15
Paraguay host Bolivia in Asuncion.  These are the two teams currently at the bottom of the standings.  Bolivia are not good away from home, but Paraguay are decidedly mediocre everywhere.  However, Paraguay are 2-1-1 at home having faced only one of the big three at home so far.

Paraguay: 79   Tie: 19   Bolivia: 2

Chile host Venezuela in the most pivotal of all remaining showdowns in CONMEBOL as the two teams fight for fourth-place and the final direct ticket to Brasil 2014.  These teams drew this fixture 2-2 in 2009, and Venezuela defeated Chile 2-1 in Copa America 2011 in Mendoza, Argentina, which is on the border with Chile.  However, Chile did win 2-0 against Venezuela already in the 2014 FIFA World Cup.  Chile are the only South American team that have yet to tie in this tournament.

Chile: 55   Tie: 20   Venezuela: 25

Peru host Uruguay.  It seems likely that Uruguay's slide into obscurity will be ongoing coming into this match, and the fact that they gave up two goals to Peru in Uruguay back in June 2012 does not bode well for their defense going into Lima.  Peru's attack is always potent at home.

Peru: 67  Tie: 23   Uruguay: 10

Colombia host Ecuador.  Colombia have only had two matches not end in victory at home, but those two were against contenders Venezuela and Argentina.  Ecuador are most definitely a contender, but Colombia score a lot at home since the year 2012.  Colombia won this fixture 2-0 in 2009.

Colombia: 61   Tie: 30   Ecuador: 9

CONMEBOL Matchday 16
Uruguay host Colombia.  Colombia already smashed Uruguay 4-0 in this tournament to throw Uruguay into a tailspin from which they have yet to recover.  Uruguay are undefeated so far at home in the 2014 FIFA World Cup with three wins and three 1-1 draws.  When Uruguay win, they score four goals at home.  Uruguay need this match a lot more than do Colombia in terms of making it to Brasil 2014.

Uruguay: 43   Tie: 43   Colombia: 14

Bolivia host Ecuador.  Ecuador needed a very questionable penalty call to go their way in order to defeat Bolivia 1-0 earlier in the tournament.  Bolivia are always solid at home, though less so during the 2014 FIFA World Cup.  Ecuador got a 3-1 win here in 2009.

Bolivia: 30   Tie: 40   Ecuador: 40

Paraguay host Argentina who will be coming off a bye.  Traditionally, this was always a riveting fixture, but with the slippage in Paraguay's quality and the sheer dominance of Argentina, perhaps some of the shine has worn off here.

Paraguay: 12   Tie: 21   Argentina: 67

Venezuela host Peru.  Venezuela have always seemed to be victimized by Peru away from home, as evidenced by their 2-1 loss in Lima earlier in the tournament and their 4-1 defeat in Copa America 2011.  However, Venezuela have four straight competitive home wins against Peru, including the 2007 Copa America and three qualifying matches.

Venezuela: 84   Tie: 14   Peru: 2

CONMEBOL Matchday 17
Argentina host Peru.  By this time, Argentina should have clinched a berth at Brasil 2014 and Peru should only be clinging to the slightest of hopes.  A loss in Argentina should be enough to extinguish that home on this penultimate matchday.

Argentina: 94   Tie: 5   Peru: 1

Ecuador host Uruguay at altitude.  Uruguay were able to win here 2-1 in 2009 in one of the most shocking results of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, thereby keeping Uruguay's hopes alive on their way to an eventual fourth-place finish at South Africa 2010.  This tournament has been a lot different, however, as Ecuador have recaptured their form from the 2002 and 2006 FIFA World Cups.

Ecuador: 88   Tie: 6   Uruguay: 6

Colombia host Chile.  Chile are the hardest team to predict as they hover around a .500 win percentage both home and away.  Colombia have not dropped points at home since 2011.

Colombia: 73   Tie: 5   Chile: 22

Venezuela host Paraguay.  Venezuela defeated Paraguay on the road for the first time ever during this tournament, and they did so by a 2-0 scoreline.  That was the only match in which Venezuela have scored multiple goals so far in the 2014 FIFA World Cup, and a lack of goals may undo all the stellar defensive work they have put in should they not qualify.  Paraguay did win this fixture in 2009.

Venezuela: 82   Tie: 11   Paraguay: 7

CONMEBOL Matchday 18
Uruguay host Argentina in a border battle.  Argentina will be motivated as they look to avenge their elimination at home in Copa America 2011 at the hands of Uruguay with a win on the road.  Argentina were able to secure a win in this fixture in 2009.

Uruguay: 26   Tie: 30   Argentina: 44

Paraguay host Colombia in what is likely to be a dead rubber.  Paraguay will be eliminated and Colombia will be in Brasil 2014.  Colombia were able to win 2-0 in a dead rubber here in 2009.

Paraguay: 40   Tie: 20   Colombia: 40

Chile face Ecuador.  The implications of this match could be enormous, with a possibility that both teams would need to collect points in order to clinch direct berths to Brasil 2014.  Ecuador have already beaten Chile 3-1 during this tournament, but Chile eliminated Ecuador from South Africa 2010 contention in this fixture with a 1-0 victory in 2009.  Chile have not fared so well against the power teams at home in this tournament, losing to Argentina and Colombia.

Chile: 55  Tie: 3  Ecuador: 42

Peru host Bolivia, who will be coming off a bye for this likely dead rubber.  One of the best home teams will be playing perhaps the weakest road team on the continent.

Peru: 90   Tie: 8   Bolivia: 2

Random.org Results

Every result was run through the random generator for fifty iterations of the qualification cycle.  What follows are the average outcomes and range extremes over the fifty iterations.  The top four teams go directly to Brasil 2014 with the fifth-place team going to the intercontinental playoffs.

Average Final Standings: (Median point total in parentheses)
Argentina 34.26 (34)
Colombia 28.68 (29)
Ecuador 28.12 (29)
Venezuela 24.56 (24.5)
Chile 23.96 (24)
Peru 18.5 (18)
Uruguay 17.14 (17)
Paraguay 14.02 (14)
Bolivia 12.04 (12)

Chance of Direct Qualification: (Chance of going to intercontinental playoffs in parentheses)
Argentina 50
Colombia 50
Ecuador 46 (4)
Venezuela 26 (22)
Chile 28 (20)
Peru 0 (2)
Uruguay 0 (2)
Paraguay 0
Bolivia 0

It is strange to note that although Venezuela achieved a higher average point total, Chile were more likely to secure direct qualification.

Highest and Lowest Point Totals:
Argentina 39 / 31
Colombia 34 / 24
Ecuador 33 / 23
Venezuela 31 / 19
Chile 30 / 18
Peru 23 / 13
Uruguay 23 / 13
Paraguay 20 / 9
Bolivia 16 / 9

The takeaway is that Argentina, Colombia, and Ecuador will be at Brasil 2014, where they will be joined by the winner of the coin flip between Venezuela and Chile.  The loser of that coin flip will be going to the intercontinental playoffs to face the fifth-place team from Asia.  I would bet on all five teams being present at Brasil 2014.

Wish List for 2013

With the final draw for Brasil 2014 less than a year away, now is a good time to ask politely for which teams I want to see at the final draw.  Keep in mind that UEFA receives thirteen places, including four from intraconfederation playoffs, CAF receives five places, AFC receives four places, CONMEBOL receives four places, and CONCACAF receives three places.  Add in Brasil as hosts plus the two intercontinental playoff winners (AFC-CONMEBOL, CONCACAF-OFC) and we have our final thirty-two contenders.

UEFA
Group A - Belgium

The young bucks striving for a shot at glory would be a fun team to watch.  Christian Benteke, Romelu Lukaku, Kevin de Bruyne, Eden Hazard, Axel Witsel, Marouane Fellaini, and Vincent Kompany will all be aged 28 or less when Brasil 2014 comes around.

Group B - Italy

Would it be a FIFA World Cup without them?

Group C - Germany

See Italy.

Group D - Netherlands

They are aging, yes.  They are in decline, yes, as evidenced by their flameout at Euro 2012.  But they are clearly the class of their group, and after having lost three grand finals before, who would deny this generation of the Oranje one final shot at glory?

Group E - Switzerland

It's either them or Norway, folks.  Let's see if Diego Benaglio can concede zero goals in the Swiss net like Pascal Zuberbuhler before him did at Germany 2006.

Group F - Russia

After their slipup in the playoffs against Slovenia in 2009 and their shock group stage elimination at the hands of Greece at Euro 2012, the Euro 2008 semifinalists who showed so much promise have yet to put it together on the biggest stage.  With hosting privileges awaiting them in 2018, let's hope Russia can put together a run in 2014.  Knocking Portugal five points off the pace in Group F was a good start.

Group G - Bosnia and Herzegovina

The strike force is world class, and a wish list is built around attacking football.  Edin Dzeko, Vedad Ibisevic,  Miralem Pjanic, and Zvjezdan Misimovic have combined for fourteen goals in four qualifiers so far.  If they avoid the playoffs, they avoid bug-a-boo Portugal, thus qualifying for their maiden major international tournament.

Group H - Montenegro

The newest national team in UEFA has the inside track at making its first FIFA World Cup finals.  Captain Mirko Vucinic would put a wonderful face on Balkan football at Brasil 2014, and young star Luka Dordevic could be a revelation.  Center back Marko Basa, overlooked for Germany 2006 by Serbia and Montenegro, would make his first appearance at a FIFA World Cup finals.

Group I - Spain

Whether the two-time defending European champions and defending world champions get in via direct qualification or through the playoffs does not matter to me.  It would be more interesting to watch the French media freak out during a playoff after the debacle at South Africa 2010 and the circumstances under which they defeated Ireland in the playoffs.  Plus, I feel Spain are likely to snatch a victory in Saint-Denis when the two powers next meet in Group I play.

Playoff One - England

Perhaps going through the playoffs would unify a team that always seems to be disjointed in some fashion.  Brasil 2014 would be better off with England around than at home with the talent they bring to the equation, and their high ranking would see them avoid being drawn with a France or Portugal in the playoffs, giving them a good chance to advance.

Playoff Two - France

They may not win their group, but the new crop of players is motivated to put South Africa 2010 behind them.

Playoff Three - Sweden

After the four-goal shows they put it to come back from 4-0 down in Germany for a tie in qualifying and to defeat England 4-2 in a home friendly, the world needs Zlatan Ibrahimovic in the showcase.

Playoff Four - Portugal

Why Portugal with the final spot?  Perhaps I could have asked for Croatia or Greece, and indeed, Portugal have been a disappointment since making the semifinals of Euro 2012.  Why, then, select Portugal?  Simply put, Portugal have a better chance of going deep into any tournament than the other two teams do.  Also, would you rather watch Mario Mandzukic, Georgios Samaras, or Cristiano Ronaldo?  Exactly.

AFC
Group One - South Korea

See Italy, Germany.

Group One - Uzbekistan

What better way for the White Wolves to continue as the shining light in Central Asia than to be become the first Central Asian and third Soviet republic to make the FIFA World Cup finals (after Russia and Ukraine)? Midfielder Odil Ahmedov was the player of the year for his Russian club, Anzhi Makhachkala, over Yuri Zhirkov and even Samuel Eto'o, but the world has yet to recognize his existence.

Group Two - Japan

They have already wrapped up a spot barring forfeiture of their final three matches.  The world needs to be ready for Shinji Okazaki, Shinji Kagawa, Yuto Nagatomo, and the rest of the 2011 AFC Asian Cup champions.

Group Two - Australia

The Socceroos are having all sorts of difficulties at the moment, but would we truly prefer to see Jordan, Oman, or Iraq in their place?  And miss the rise of Matt McKay, Alex Brosque, and Robbie Kruse?  And miss the last hurrah of Brett Emerton, Tim Cahill, Mark Schwarzer, and Lucas Neill?

Iran and Iraq were under consideration for spots in their respective groups.  Honestly, though, who would not tune in to watch an Iran-Iraq fifth-place playoff series for the right to take on a South American opponent?

CAF
Spot One - Cote d'Ivoire

The golden generation needs to make it to the knockout stages of the FIFA World Cup to solidify its legacy.  A kinder draw would be helpful, too.  Also, winning the 2013 African Cup of Nations after finishing second in 2006 despite conceding no goals would earn them a trip to the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup to acclimate themselves to the stadia in Brasil.  The world already loves the old guard (Didier Drogba, Yaya Toure, Kolo Toure, Emmanuel Eboue, Salomon Kalou, Boubacar Barry), and the world will fall for the new guard in time (Max Gredel, Gervinho).

Spot Two - Zambia

The 2012 African champions were one point away from qualifying from United States 1994 in spite of suffering a tremendous loss of life in a plane crash in 1993.  They have placed the sad memory away for motivation and instead are living the dream, having taken their maiden continental title in the same country (Gabon) where that plane went down.  The Chipolopolo have stockpiles of underappreciated talent with Rainford Kalaba, Chisamba Lungu, Emmanuel Mayuka, and Stoppila Sunzu all still early in their career arcs.  Also, if Zambia qualify, that means Ghana are out, and quite frankly I am tired of watching the Black Stars' anemic offense magically reach the knockout stages of FIFA World Cups on the backs of penalty kicks resulting from handballs in the box by their opponents.

Spot Three - Nigeria

For all the disarray in which the Super Eagles have found themselves, they remain one of the premier teams in Africa.  They even placed their women's side at Germany 2011.  What fan base in Africa could be more passionate than that of the overly-demanding Nigerian fans?

Spot Four - Egypt

Oh, right, the Egyptian fans, the only group more passionate and desparate than the Nigerian fans.  Egypt won four African Cup of Nations since 1998, including three consecutive cups between 2006 and 2010, yet they have not made it to a FIFA World Cup finals since Italy 1990.  Much maligned American coach Bob Bradley has a chance to prove his doubters wrong and to bring joy to a country now struggling to reestablish its government and political stability.

Spot Five - Mali

Spot five contenders included Ethiopia, Senegal, and Tunisia.  The allure of Tunisia would be the opportunity to see Youssef Msakni on the big stage for the first time.  Senegal would bring the strike force of Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse to the table.  Ethiopian qualification would shed light upon the Horn of Africa, a region often overlooked in the footballing world but now on the rise following Ethiopia's shock qualification for the 2013 African Cup of Nations.  Also, it would be interesting to see if Saladin Said would be able to use the platform to facilitate a move abroad to a major club, the first for a habesha player in quite some time.  However, the choice was Mali because Les Aigles have been so close to continental glory on so many occasions only to fall at the semifinal hurdle four times since 1994.  Plus, who doesn't want to see Seydou Keita and Mahamadou Diarra make one appearance on the grandest of stages before exiting the international scene?

CONCACAF
Spot One - Mexico

Mexico believe they are in a golden generation, having won the 2007 and 2009 CONCACAF Gold Cups along with the 2012 Olympic gold medal.  Will this finally be the tournament where they advance to a quarterfinal away from home soil?  Five straight trips to the Round of Sixteen, four straight losses and a shootout exit in 1994.  Their only win in the knockout stages was at home in 1986.  Mexico's all-time record in the knockout stages is a depressing 1 win, 5 losses, 2 draws with 2 penalty shootout losses.  If this team cannot make the breakthrough as a potential seed, can we say for certain that Mexico are jinxed?

Spot Two - United States of America

See Italy, Germany, South Korea.

Spot Three - Panama

This team is big and physical.  Felipe Baloy in the back is a tank.  Luis Tejada up top is a bulldozer, and his strike partner Blas Perez is a great finisher.  La Marea Roja has been on the rise for the past eight years, and in fact made a quiet appearance in the 2005 CONCACAF Gold Cup final match, which they drew with the United States only to fall on penalties.

Playoff with OFC - Honduras

With regards to the playoff, I simply do not see this incarnation of New Zealand as being as bright as the 2010 version.  This is why I wish for a fourth CONCACAF side to advance.  Quite honestly, any of the remaining three teams would have much to offer, but Costa Rica and Jamaica simply do not speak to me the way Los Catrachos do.  Oscar Boniek Garcia is a midfield maestro, and with forwards Mario Martinez and Jerry Bengston, center back Victor Bernardez, and midfielder Roger Espinoza in tow, no other country could better exemplify the strength of Major League Soccer.  All I know for certain is that the CONCACAF Fourth Round will be spectacular.

CONMEBOL
Hosts - Brasil

See Italy, Germany, South Korea, United States of America.

Spot One - Argentina

Who would deny the world a chance to see Lionel Messi, Gonzalo Higuain, Sergio Aguero, and Angel di Maria up top in Brasil 2014?  Also, see Italy, Germany, South Korea, United States of America, Brasil.

Spot Two - Colombia

Radamel Falcao, James Rodriguez, Guillermo Cuadrado, Freddy Guarin... Feel free to start drooling at any time.

Spot Three - Ecuador

Would it not be spectacular to see four former constituent countries of Gran Colombia at a FIFA World Cup finals together (Panama, Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela)?  Especially after none had qualified for the previous tournament?

Spot Four - Venezuela

One of the most underrated footballers of his generation would finally get his due on an international stage in what may well be his last attempt to qualify for the grandest of stages.  Juan Arango, the left winger and undisputed greatest player in the history of La Vinotinto, is highly regarded by German fans since his stint in the Bundesliga began in 2009.  With his exploits going unnoticed by the biggest clubs in the world, it is a fair question to ask if the reason he has not received a transfer to a big club is because of his nationality.  If Venezuela make it to Brasil 2014, the stigma attached to their players should vanish and never again would a talent like Arango be overlooked.

Playoff with AFC - Uruguay

I was debating either Iran or Iraq for the final spot, but with the tournament finals being held on continental soil, the party would be better served with another South American side.  Chile are in disarray in terms of discipline within their ranks, and though I would love to see Peru with Paolo Guerrero, Juan Vargas, Jefferson Farfan, and Claudio Pizarro in attack, their road form in qualifying will surely let them down.  The choice is Uruguay, who are no strangers to the playoffs, having claimed CONMEBOL's playoff spot in the past three tournaments.

The picture for this article is a reflection of a draw I made based on the current ELO ratings and the thirty-two teams for which I have politely asked to be at Brasil 2014.

Preview: Columbus Day 2012 New World

CONCACAF Third Round Matchday Five sees what is essentially a winner-take-all matchup in Group Two  when Costa Rica play at El Salvador.  A win for El Salvador and they advance to the Fourth Round.  A win or tie by Costa Rica and the odds fall in their favor as they would need only to beat Guyana at home on Tuesday while avoiding a shock El Salvador victory in Mexico.  Certainly, the visiting Ticos have a more fancied lineup, but they only feature four players in Europe's top leagues: forwards Bryan Ruiz (Fulham) and Joel Campbell (Real Betis), star goalkeeper Keylor Navas (Levante, Spain), and defender Bryan Oviedo (Everton, England).  Expect Ruiz to start on the bench in favor of Alvaro Saborio of Real Salt Lake (USA).  The majority of the team plays in Scandivia or in Costa Rica.  El Salvador's contingent contains mostly domestically-based players.  Midfielder and captin Dennis Alas plays for Luis Angel Firpo and Osael Romero plys his trade for Aguila.  However, key striker Rafael Burgos (Kecskemeti, Hungary) and key midfielder Jaime Alas (Rosenborg, Norway) bring foreign league credentials.  Certainly, playing at Estadio Cuscatlan instills a sense of pride into the local boys.  El Salvador struggled with Guyana in September, but they did overturn a 2-0 deficit at Costa Rica to earn a tie and were hard done by the referees in a home loss to Mexico in June.  The bold call is being made right here: El Salvador will win at home and eliminate Costa Rica.   

In Group One, Guatemala host Jamaica while United States of America go to Antigua and Barbuda.  Guatemala, Jamaica, and the United States are all even on seven points coming into Matchday Five.  Guatemala looked awful in their pair of matches against Antigua in September, going down 1-0 early at home before taking advantage of a red card to win 3-1.  Only a beautiful strike from distance by forward Carlos Ruiz (Veracruz, Mexico) allowed them to win on the road.  Midfielder Marco Pappa (Heerenveen, Netherlands) is the other star, but in reality the talent level aside from those two is low.  Jamaica were more impressive with Dwayne Miller (Syrianska, Sweden) in goal looking superb against the United States.  The strike force includes Luton Shelton (Karabukspor, Turkey) and Ryan Johnson (Toronto FC), but the strength is the speedy midfield.  Dane Richard (Vancouver Whitecaps, Canada), Rodolph Austin (Leeds United, England), and Jevaughn Watson (Houston Dynamo) are all threats.  In defense, Adrian Mariappa (Reading, England) and Jermaine Taylor (Houston Dynamo) are solid.  Jamaica will be able to sneak out a draw on Friday and defeat Antigua at home on Tuesday to advance to the hexagonal. 

The United States are missing many excellent players due to injury, including all-time leading scorer midfielder Landon Donovan (Los Angeles Galaxy) and winger Brek Shea (FC Dallas).  However, the Yanks do bring right back Steve Cherundolo (Hannover 96) and centerbacks Geoff Cameron and Maurice Edu of Stoke City, defensive midfielder Michael Bradley (AS Roma), and forward Clint Dempsey (Tottenham Hotspur) their talent is simply too great to lose to an Antigua side whose best player forward Peter Byers plays in the third-tier of the American soccer pyramid.  Antigua do feature teenage defender Zaine Francis-Angol who plies his trade with Motherwell in Scotland.  The United States will win in Antigua and then at home against Guatemala on Tuesday to advance to the CONCACAF Fourth Round.

In Group Three, Honduras at Panama will go a long way to seeing if both teams will be able to advance to the Fourth Round or whether Canada will have an opening after defeating Cuba at home on Friday.  Panama are the pick to win and advance to the final round of qualifying.  Panama feature captain Felipe Baloy (Santos Laguna, Mexico) in defense, but their true talents are further up the pitch.  Nelson Barahona (Atletico Huila, Colombia) leads the midfield and the dual strikers are the feared Blas Perez (FC Dallas) and Luis Tejada (Toluca, Mexico).

The key match will be next Tuesday with Canada traveling to Honduras.  Canada bring, but Honduras will welcome the Canucks with a tough team top to bottom.  Defender Maynor Figueroa plays for Wigan Athletic.  The other stars play in the United States, including defender Victor Bernardez (San Jose Earthquakes), midfield talisman Boniek Garcia (Houston Dynamo), midfielders Roger Espinoza (Sporting Kansas City) and Marvin Chavez (San Jose), and forward Jerry Bengston (New England Revolution).  However, Espinoza will be out through injury. Canada feature captain and centerback Kevin McKenna (Koln, Germany), defenders Andre Hainault (Houston) and Marcel de Jong (Augsburg), and goalkeeper Lars Hirschfeld (Valerenga, Norway) from a team that has pitched eight shutouts in ten 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers played.  An attack featuring midfielder Atiba Hutchinson (PSV Eindhoven) and fast attackers Olivier Occean (Eintracht Frankfurt) and Simeon Jackson (Norwich City, England) will be able to replace the injured Dwayne de Rosario (DC United, USA).  Canada should sneak a low-scoring draw much like the 0-0 between the sides in June and advance behind Panama into the final six in CONCACAF.

In South America, the marquee matchup features 2011 Copa America winners Uruguay visiting first-place Argentina.  Uruguay have been severely off their game as of late, losing 4-0 in Colombia and drawing 1-1 against Ecuador at home in September.  Argentina are simply the much better side as of late, having defeated Paraguay soundly last month and stealing a road draw against Peru.  Argentina do not look vulnerable at home this year despite the punditry always criticizing their star forward Lionel Messi (Barcelona).  Uruguay are out of sorts, and their best striker Luis Suarez (Liverpool, England) has been receiving much negative media attention and a heavy workload at his club.  Argentina will win and extend their lead atop the standings.

Two other CONMEBOL contenders square off with Chile at Ecuador also on the slate.  A Chile side without the suspended Gary Medel (Sevilla) head to Quito to take on an Ecuador side that catches break after break in their home matches to maintain a very lucky 100 percent home record.  However, Ecuador have yet to allow a goal in Quito in the 2014 FIFA World Cup, and they have already won their first four matches at home, so why stop now?  Ecuador will win.

In the other two matches on CONMEBOL Matchday Nine, Bolivia are the pick at home against Peru and Colombia will run rampant on Paraguay at home.

Quick picks for CONMEBOL Matchday Ten: Uruguay tie at Bolivia, Venezuela defeat Ecuador at home, Paraguay defeat Peru at home, and Argentina tie at Chile.

Match Previews:
http://www.ticotimes.net/Current-Edition/News-Briefs/To-keep-World-Cup-hopes-alive-Costa-Rica-must-not-stumble-in-El-Salvador_Thursday-October-11-2012
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1783170/index.html?intcmp=newsreader_news_box_4
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1783123/index.html?intcmp=newsreader_news_box_2
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1782787/index.html?intcmp=newsreader_news_box_1
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/blog/_/name/espnfcunited/id/1040?cc=5901
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/blog/_/name/espnfcunited/id/1024?cc=5901
http://www.soccerbyives.net/2012/10/klinsmann-usmnt-midfield.html
http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2012/10/11/wcq-preview-short-handed-us-look-avoid-antigua-trap
http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2012/10/11/wcq-preview-canada-not-overlooking-mystery-cuban-side

Preview: Columbus Day 2012 Old World

It is time to break down the five biggest matchups in European 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifying this Friday.

UEFA Matchday Three sees many clashes of contenders, none bigger than Portugal at Russia in Group F action.  Portugal are the big name, but Russia are the team that started brightest with big wins over Northern Ireland and Israel.  Portugal eked by Luxembourg and struggled for eighty minutes with Azerbaijan, so the form of Russia is certainly stronger at the moment.  However, Portugal outperformed Russia at the recent UEFA Euro 2012.  Portugal are feeling the injury bug coming into the match with forward Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid), centerback Pepe (Real Madrid), and Raul Meireles (Chelsea) all somewhat hampered at the moment.  Russia appear to be a healthier side, and the artificial surface in Moscow may play into a decision to drop the injured Portuguese from the starting lineup.  Both teams look assured of a top-two finish in the group, so this match will go a long way in determining who will end up in the UEFA playoffs and who will be group winners.  The hole opened up by the lack of a healthy Pepe will allow the crisp final-third passing game of the Russians to take over with forward Aleksandr Kerzhakov (Zenit St. Petersburg) and attacking midfielder Alan Dzagoev (CSKA Moscow) finding plenty of room to operate.  All signs point to a Russian victory on this night.

In a Group G with no superpower team, Bosnia and Herzegovina head to Greece with first place on the line.  Bosnia have never beaten Greece; in fact, they have only scored two goals in five meetings between the teams.  Greece have talent in defense and are always capable of springing a successful counterattack, as they proved in the first hour of their UEFA Euro 2012 quarterfinal against Germany.  Young defender Sokratis Papastathopoulos (Werder Bremen) will command the rear with captain Giorgos Karagounis (Fulham) in the middle of the pitch.  Celtic striker Giorgos Samaras is always dangerous on the counter, as is strike partner Theofanis Gekas (Levante, Spain).  Of course, Bosnia have the far superior attack, led by striker Edin Dzeko (Manchester City) and attacking midfielder Zvjezdan Misimovic (Dynamo Moscow).  Centerback and captain Emir Spahic (Sevilla) will need to keep his team alert to the counterattack.  Greece are always a tough nut to crack at home, especially for an on-the-rise side like Bosnia looking to qualify for their first major tournament finals.  Expect a tense low-scoring draw.

Belgium, after dropping two points at home to Croatia on the previous matchday, now head to Serbia in Group A.  Croatia are the best-positioned team in the standings at the moment, so Belgium and Serbia need to keep pace.  Marouane Fellaini (Everton, England) will be out for the matchup, so midfielder Axel Witsel (Zenit St. Petersburg) will have to make up for his absence.  Star Chelsea forward Eden Hazard leads the attack, but it is the Belgian backline that is spectacular, boasting Vincent Kompany (Manchester City), Thomas Vermaelen (Arsenal, England), and Jan Vertonghen (Tottenham Hotspur). Serbia were shown to be weak in attack during a poor opening showing in Scotland, but thankfully their defense have done well.  Branislav Ivanovic (Chelsea) is the leader in the back, but his teammates are quite capable themselves.  Neven Subotic (Borussia Dortmund) and Aleksadar Kolarov (Manchester City) are also playing for UEFA Champions League clubs.  Though it was against a poor opponent, Serbia's 6-1 home win over Wales is still fresh on the mind, so perhaps they will be able to score against Belgium.  This matchup will be interesting, and with so little to pick between the teams, a tie appears a reasonable result to predict.

Group C witnesses Ireland at Germany.  For all the talk of the Germans not being in top form, they still managed to win 2-1 on the road against Austria last round.  They will be at home against an Ireland time that does not have the talent to match up with Germany, especially with Robbie Keane (Los Angeles Galaxy), Sean St. Ledger (Leicester City), Richard Dunne (Aston Villa), Glen Whelan (Stoke City), James McClean (Sunderland), and Kevin Doyle (Wolverhampton Wanderers) all out for the fixture. Germany will win handily as they will not face the bulk of Ireland English Premier League contingent.

In a tight Group B with four contenders, a key matchup takes place in Bulgaria as Denmark come to visit.  The two teams are looking for three points to apply pressure to fellow contenders Italy and Czech Republic. Certainly, Bulgaria looked the stronger side, opening with a 2-2 draw at home to Italy while Denmark struggled mightily in a 0-0 home draw against Czech Republic.  The Danes have Daniel Agger (Liverpool) and Simon Kjaer (Wolfsburg) in central defense, though Agger doubles as a threat on set pieces.  Up top, they feature Nicklas Bendtner (Juventus) and Michael Krohn-Dehli (Celta Vigo).  However, the midfield consist of lesser known players looking to solidify their place as stars of the national side.  Bulgaria are less talented top-to-bottom, but that did not stop them from getting a result against Italy.  Right back Stanislav Manolev (PSV Eindhoven) is the biggest talent on the roster, although forward Ivelin Popov (Kuban Krasnodar, Russia) is a young man on the rise.  With Denmark facing Italy on Tuesday, this matchup in Bulgaria could prove to be a trap game.  Bulgaria are always strong at home, but for some reason I have the inkling that Denmark will nonetheless pick up their first victory of the tournament.

Match Previews:
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1783048/index.html?intcmp=newsreader_news_box_3
http://www.portugoal.net/index.php/more-natonal-team-news/37105-russia-v-portugal-preview
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1367360-russia-vs-portugal-date-time-live-stream-tv-info-and-preview-2014-world-cup
http://www.uefa.com/worldcup/season=2014/matches/round=2000294/match=2008699/prematch/preview/index.html
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/soccer/10/11/ireland-robbie-keane-germany.ap/index.html?sct=sc_t2_a12

Preview: OFC Second Round

Earlier this year, the 2012 OFC Nations Cup was taken away from Fiji due to an ongoing legal dispute between the OFC General Secretary and Fijian authorities and awarded to the Solomon Islands. The group stage of the OFC Nations Cup is doubling as the OFC Second Round, so homefield in the match between Fiji and Solomon Islands has shifted to the Bonitos, who will be playing every match before a packed house in the Lawson Tama Stadium in the country's capital, Honiara.  The 2012 OFC Nations Cup is the biggest sporting event ever staged in the Solomon Islands, and the Bonitos are under pressure to perform.

The pressure is greater in Oceania in June 2012 than in any other confederation with regards to 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifying.  The only four eliminations this month will take place in Oceania as the Oceania field is cut from eight to four over a period of six days from 1 June to 6 June.

Group A
At the 2011 Pacific Games held in New Caledonia, the hosts defeated Vanuatu 5-0 on the opening day, and the two teams meet again in Group A play.  Georges Gope-Menefej (AS Magenta) netted a hat trick on that day in August 2011, and he is featured on the roster for the 2012 OFC Nations Cup.  New Caledonia will not be as confident when they face Tahiti, however.  In a semifinal on home soil, New Caledonia needed a last minute equalizer to send the match into extra time, where New Caledonia defeated Tahiti 3-1.  There will be no such home field advantage this time around, so New Caledonia will be wary.  Gope-Menefej scored twice in that match as well.  New Caledonia went on to win the final of the 2011 Pacific Games paced by the scoring exploits of ten-goal scorer Bertrand Kai (Hienghene Sport), so they are resounding favorites to advance as one of the top two finishers from Group A.  Samoa provided great thrills during their first-place finish in the OFC First Round, but expectations are low for round two.  Kiwi FC of their domestic league will provide Samoa with midfielder Silao Malo and forward Luki Gosche, but Samoa are likely to finish fourth in the group.

The crucial matchup will be between Tahiti and Vanuatu for the second spot in Group A.  Vanuatu are going with a youth movement, which they hope will pay dividends quickly.  The stars are keeping it inside the family for Vanuatu.  Midfielder Michel Kaltak plays for regional powerhouse Hekari United (Papua New Guinea), and young cousins defender Brian Kaltak and forward Jean Kaltak both play for Teouma Academy in the domestic league.  Jean already has nine goals for the national team at age 17.  Tahiti by contrast is overflowing with experience, especially after the recent appearance of 2010 and 2011 domestic champion AS Tefana in the final of the 2012 O-League.  Goalkeeper Xavier Samin plays for Tefana, as does defender Angelo Tchen.  Forward and captain Naea Bennett lines up for AS Pirae.  Expect the experience of Tahiti to win out over the youth of Vanuatu to nip the second spot in the group.  Both teams should be thanking their luck that they avoided the more difficult Group B.

Group B
Fiji and Papua New Guinea met at the 2011 Pacific Games in a September 2011 matchup.   Fiji won on that day 2-0 to advance to the semifinals, but there they met up with Solomon Islands on a neutral pitch.  The Bonitos defeated Fiji 2-1 in extra time, a bad sign for Fiji who are tasked with playing the Bonitos on the road during Group B action.  Based on these results, Solomon Islands are expected to take the second spot in the group, with Fiji eliminated in third and Papua New Guinea eliminated in fourth.  Papua New Guinea boast domestic league hero Kema Jack of the 2010 O-League champion Hekari United at forward, but his presence will not be enough to advance.  Hosts Solomon Islands boast lots of talent, highlighted by attacking midfielder Henry Fa'arodo (Team Wellington, New Zealand) and forwards Benjamin Totori and James Naka (Koloale).  Koloale play in the Lawson Tama Stadium, so Totori and Naka will be used to finding the back of the net in this facility.  Naka is no stranger to the big stage, having featured in four FIFA Beach Soccer World Cups.

In first place will be found New Zealand.  The All Whites are the dominant team in the region and boost star power that no other Oceanian team can claim.  The list of players plying their trade in England is increasing every season, and the current crop includes defenders Ryan Nelsen (Tottenham, pictured #6) and Winston Reid (West Ham, #4) and forward Chris Wood (West Bromwich Albion, #20).  Young forward Kosta Barbarouses plays in Russia for Alania Vladikavkaz.  2010 FIFA World Cup hero goalkeeper Mark Paston (#1) plays in the A-League for Wellington Phoenix.  His club teammates featured on this OFC Second Round roster include defenders Tony Lochhead (#3) and Ben Sigmund and midfielders Leo Bertos (#11) and Jeremy Brockie.  Fellow A-Leaguer Shane Smeltz (#9) of Perth Glory is the all-time leading goalscorer in the history of the A-League.  Rory Fallon (Aberdeen, Scotland, #14) scored the header that sent the All Whites to South Africa 2010 over Bahrain.  However, New Zealand did suffer their only loss of the 2010 FIFA World Cup to Fiji 2-0 in November 2008 behind two goals from Roy Krishna (Waitakere United, New Zealand), widely known as the jewel of the Fijian strikeforce.  Fiji's midfield will be controlled by Pita Baleitoga of Hekari United.

Expect New Caledonia, Tahiti, New Zealand, and Solomon Islands to come through.

Match Previews:
http://www.oceaniafootball.com/ofc/News/ViewArticle/tabid/125/Article/2e8d6f54-0613-40b3-824d-ccf52bc4b856/language/en-US/Default.aspx
http://www.oceaniafootball.com/ofc/News/ViewArticle/tabid/125/Article/2c57d74a-3054-4e0d-bbf1-0435e705a0d1/language/en-US/Default.aspx
Squad Lists
http://www.oceaniafootball.com/ofc/Competitions/TeamList/tabid/1014/Competition/5bfee792-10b4-4af8-889d-4a0b088859c6/language/en-US/Default.aspx
Fiji
http://www.oceaniafootball.com/ofc/News/ViewArticle/tabid/125/Article/82e08a91-350d-4fbd-b22b-200b4e4eff25/language/en-US/Default.aspx
http://www.oceaniafootball.com/ofc/News/ViewArticle/tabid/125/Article/3c0e05fe-4da2-426e-bb3c-c8c37424c683/language/en-US/Default.aspx
New Caledonia
http://www.oceaniafootball.com/ofc/News/ViewArticle/tabid/125/Article/6f6261ca-fec8-47c5-8c2f-19ac21b65bc7/language/en-US/Default.aspx
New Zealand
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1631664/index.html
Papua New Guinea
http://www.oceaniafootball.com/ofc/News/ViewArticle/tabid/125/Article/e10ae2f3-0b9c-4cec-8dfe-6c30255ec9c0/language/en-US/Default.aspx
Solomon Islands
http://www.oceaniafootball.com/ofc/News/ViewArticle/tabid/125/Article/b20575c0-4eb6-4e35-9483-465ed6fdb826/language/en-US/Default.aspx
http://www.oceaniafootball.com/ofc/News/ViewArticle/tabid/125/Article/fee0b728-711d-4853-9b2c-0c44e14f85cd/language/en-US/Default.aspx
Tahiti
http://www.oceaniafootball.com/ofc/News/ViewArticle/tabid/125/Article/185a1fe6-ca38-445c-a69c-774737677a57/language/en-US/Default.aspx
Vanuatu
http://www.oceaniafootball.com/ofc/News/ViewArticle/tabid/125/Article/c66e83ad-0fa7-4843-a7a6-9551497e2a9b/language/en-US/Default.aspx

Turmoil in Africa

With the political upheaval in Africa the past two years, it is of little surprise that football is feeling the effects.  Egypt have been forced to host their first qualifier behind closed doors in Alexandria on 1 June 2012 against Mozambique.  Libya have been forced to play their home opener in Sfax, Tunisia on 10 June 2012 against Cameroon.  The recent overthrow of the Malian government has left Mali's home fixture against Algeria on Matchday Two to remain unscheduled.  Additional security personnel will be on hand for Nigeria and Kenya's home openers as well.  Nigeria moved its match originally scheduled for the national stadium in Abuja to Calabar.

In sad news, Rwanda will have to deal with the untimely death of their captain Patrick Mafisango as they begin play in the CAF Second Round.  Mafisango was killed in a car wreck in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.  His club team Simba is based in that city.  Mafisango made 32 appearances for Rwanda.

Press Releases:
http://espn.go.com/sports/soccer/story/_/id/7936770/2014-world-cup-egypt-libya-qualifiers-played-minus-fans
http://espn.go.com/sports/soccer/story/_/id/7941927/ex-rwanda-captain-patrick-mafisango-dies-car-crash
http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/7927929/otl-former-us-soccer-coach-bob-bradley-bonds-egyptian-star-aboutrika-espn-magazine Article on Bob Bradley, coach of Egypt

Match Previews:
Namibia
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1634638/index.html

Preview: AFC Third Round Matchday Six

Four of ten berths into the final group stage of Asian qualifying are still up for grabs on the final matchday of the first group stage. 29 February 2012 will go down in history as one of the best days in some countries' footballing history, while others will rue the day for opportunities lost.

The preview will start with the deciding matches in Group D, both of which kickoff at 4:30 Central Time (GMT-6). The current group standings are as follows:

Australia 12 pts IN

Saudi Arabia 6 pts +1, 4 goals scored

Oman 5 pts -5, 1 goal scored

Thailand 4 pts -2, 4 goals scored

All four teams are still in contention for the next round. Saudi Arabia pay a visit to group winners Australia in Melbourne knowing that a win would secure them second place in the group. However, Holger Osieck's Australia do not appear to be resting on their laurels and have named a decent squad for the clash. Mark Schwarzer (Fulham) will be in goal, and captain Lucas Neill (Al Jazira, United Arab Emirates; pictured, 2) will be set up in the defense before him. Outstanding performers from the 2011 AFC Asian Cup David Carney (Bunyodkor, Uzbekistan) and Sasa Ognenovski (Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma, South Korea, pictured, 6) will be alongside Neill.

The midfield is a bit more raw for Australia, with only Brett Emerton (Sydney FC) being a stalwart at the position. Mark Bresciano (Al Nasr, UAE) is making his first appearance for the Socceroos since Osieck took over after the 2010 FIFA World Cup. James Troisi is one of three European-based players as he plays in Turkey for Kayserispor. At forward is another European-based player in Adam Sarota of Utrecht in the Dutch League. Sarota will be splitting minutes with former star Harry Kewell (Melbourne Victory' pictured, 10) and up-and-comer Alex Brosque (Shimizu S-Pulse, Japan). With so many quality players not making the final cut, all who did make the Australia squad will be eager to put on a good performance, so there will be no questioning the home side's motivation in this match.

The pressure is on Saudi Arabia's coach Frank Rijkaard to secure the win and avoid a devastating failure to qualify for the final ten in Asia. The only non-domestically-based player in the side is forward Yasser Al Qahtani of Al Ain (UAE; pictured, green). The Green Falcons will be counting on him and strike partner Nasser Al-Shamrani (Al-Shabab) to deliver much needed offense in the encounter. Playmaker Mohammad Al-Shalboub of Al-Hilal will be looking to breakdown the inexperienced midfield of Australia and will be joined in the midfield by captain Taisir Al-Jassim of Al-Ahli. Al-Hilal's Osama Hawsawi will be the leader in defense for Saudi Arabia.

Should Saudi Arabia slip up, the match is Muscat between hosts Oman and visiting Thailand will be crucial. An Oman win would carry them through to the final group stage. If Saudi Arabia lose, a Thailand victory would be sufficient. If Saudi Arabia tie, a Thai victory would need to overcome a goal differential of three in order for Thailand to overtake the Saudis. Omani forward Amad Al Hosni of Al-Ahli will be looking for his Saudi teammates to give his squad an opening so that Al Hosni may score the clinching goal that sends Oman into the final ten in Asia. Minding the net for Oman is their sole European-based player, Ali Al-Habsi (Wigan, England).

Thailand, lest we forget, defeated Oman soundly in their first encounter, a 3-0 beating in Bangkok last September. However, problems with the two Thai goalscorers in that encounter have left the front line in shambles. Sompong Soleb will have to re-earn his coach's trust after personal issues have arisen, whereas Teerasil Dangda is racing to recover from a groin injury in time to be selected for the decider. An added obstacle comes in the form of an out-of-season matchday as the Thai domestic league is not in session. Compare this to the Omani domestic league, which is currently in full swing.

The Group B finales simultaneously kickoff at 6:00 Central Time. Three teams remain in contention for the two berths in the next stage. The current standings are as follows:

South Korea 10 pts +8

Lebanon 10 pts -2

Kuwait 8 pts +1

UAE OUT

South Korea fired their coach Cho Kwang-Rae after a shock 2-1 loss to Lebanon last November. In stepped Choi Kang-Hee, the coach of Jeonbuk Motors, winners of the 2011 K-League and finalists in the 2011 AFC Champions League. At forward, coach Choi has dropped two European-based strikers in Koo Ja-Cheol (Augsburg) and Ji Dong-Won (Sunderland) in favor of familiarity in the form of Jeonbuk's Lee Dong-Gook. Lee Dong-Gook will pair up top with captain and leading goalscorer Park Chu-Young (Arsenal, England). Park Chu-Young is one of only three players based outside of South Korea. The others are defender Lee Jung-Soo of the 2011 AFC Champions Al-Sadd (Qatar) and midfielder Ki Sung-Yueng of Celtic. Famed goalkeeper Jung Sung-Ryung (Suwon Samsung) has been tasked with preventing any Kuwaiti shots from breaching his goalmouth. South Korea qualify for the next phase unless they lose and UAE do not defeat Lebanon. Kuwait's only qualification scenario is to win in Seoul. They bring an entirely domestic-based squad featuring three players with a century of caps: forward Bader Al-Mutwa (Al-Qadsia) and Al-Kuwait's midfielder duo of Waleed Ali and Jarah Al-Ateeqi.

Lebanon are but one step away from an astounding berth in the final ten in Asian qualifying for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Lebanon will secure qualification with a win or draw in Abu Dhabi against pointless UAE. Lebanon even advance with a loss so long as Kuwait do not win against South Korea! The Cedars will not be looking for outside help, however, and they will continue to count on consistent performers like attacking midfielder Akram Moghrabi (Nejmeh, Lebanon), midfielder and captain Roda Antar (Shandong Luneng, China), forward Hassan Maatouk (Ajman Club, UAE), defender Youssef Mohamad (Al-Ahli, UAE), and young defensive phenom Walid Ismael (Racing Beirut).

In Group E, Qatar go to Tehran to face Iran while Bahrain host Indonesia in Manama. The only way that Bahrain can advance in place of Qatar as the second team out of the group is if both Bahrain and Iran secure victory and Bahrain overcome a nine-goal goal differential against Qatar. Basically, the world should prepare itself to watch the stars of 2011 AFC Champions League winner Al-Sadd (goalkeeper Mohamed Saqr, defenders Abdullah Koni and Ibrahim Walid, midfielder Khalfan Ibrahim, and forward Yusef Ahmed) in the AFC Fourth Round while wearing Qatari national team jerseys.

Another relevant thing to bear in mind are the potential seedings for the final round draw. Based on my projections, here is how the seedings may wind up. Current FIFA and ELO rankings are given next to the country's name, though only the eccentric FIFA rankings (listed first) count for seeding. According to the ELO ranking, the teams of the Asian confederation are severely underrated by the FIFA rankings, which always overrate European teams.

Two teams will be in each of five pots for the AFC Fourth Round draw. An asterisk signals that the team has yet to secure qualification for the next phase.

22/16 Australia

30/18 Japan

34/25 South Korea*

47/29 Iran

77/57 Uzbekistan

79/66 Iraq

82/69 Jordan

95/79 Oman*

96/88 Qatar*

114/126 Lebanon*

Projected to be eliminated:

89/72 Saudi Arabia*

91/77 Kuwait*

97/67 Bahrain*

130/110 Thailand*

Match Previews:

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1589112/index.html

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1589213/index.html (Australia)

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1587092/index.html (Australia)

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1588144/index.html (Saudi Arabia)

http://www.footballaustralia.com.au/news-display/green-falcons-aim-to-fly-high/45442 (Saudi Arabia)

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1585716/index.html (Oman)

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1581388/index.html (Thailand)

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1582065/index.html (South Korea)

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1582240/index.html (Lebanon)

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1588315/index.html (Qatar)