Preview: Columbus Day 2012 New World

CONCACAF Third Round Matchday Five sees what is essentially a winner-take-all matchup in Group Two  when Costa Rica play at El Salvador.  A win for El Salvador and they advance to the Fourth Round.  A win or tie by Costa Rica and the odds fall in their favor as they would need only to beat Guyana at home on Tuesday while avoiding a shock El Salvador victory in Mexico.  Certainly, the visiting Ticos have a more fancied lineup, but they only feature four players in Europe's top leagues: forwards Bryan Ruiz (Fulham) and Joel Campbell (Real Betis), star goalkeeper Keylor Navas (Levante, Spain), and defender Bryan Oviedo (Everton, England).  Expect Ruiz to start on the bench in favor of Alvaro Saborio of Real Salt Lake (USA).  The majority of the team plays in Scandivia or in Costa Rica.  El Salvador's contingent contains mostly domestically-based players.  Midfielder and captin Dennis Alas plays for Luis Angel Firpo and Osael Romero plys his trade for Aguila.  However, key striker Rafael Burgos (Kecskemeti, Hungary) and key midfielder Jaime Alas (Rosenborg, Norway) bring foreign league credentials.  Certainly, playing at Estadio Cuscatlan instills a sense of pride into the local boys.  El Salvador struggled with Guyana in September, but they did overturn a 2-0 deficit at Costa Rica to earn a tie and were hard done by the referees in a home loss to Mexico in June.  The bold call is being made right here: El Salvador will win at home and eliminate Costa Rica.   

In Group One, Guatemala host Jamaica while United States of America go to Antigua and Barbuda.  Guatemala, Jamaica, and the United States are all even on seven points coming into Matchday Five.  Guatemala looked awful in their pair of matches against Antigua in September, going down 1-0 early at home before taking advantage of a red card to win 3-1.  Only a beautiful strike from distance by forward Carlos Ruiz (Veracruz, Mexico) allowed them to win on the road.  Midfielder Marco Pappa (Heerenveen, Netherlands) is the other star, but in reality the talent level aside from those two is low.  Jamaica were more impressive with Dwayne Miller (Syrianska, Sweden) in goal looking superb against the United States.  The strike force includes Luton Shelton (Karabukspor, Turkey) and Ryan Johnson (Toronto FC), but the strength is the speedy midfield.  Dane Richard (Vancouver Whitecaps, Canada), Rodolph Austin (Leeds United, England), and Jevaughn Watson (Houston Dynamo) are all threats.  In defense, Adrian Mariappa (Reading, England) and Jermaine Taylor (Houston Dynamo) are solid.  Jamaica will be able to sneak out a draw on Friday and defeat Antigua at home on Tuesday to advance to the hexagonal. 

The United States are missing many excellent players due to injury, including all-time leading scorer midfielder Landon Donovan (Los Angeles Galaxy) and winger Brek Shea (FC Dallas).  However, the Yanks do bring right back Steve Cherundolo (Hannover 96) and centerbacks Geoff Cameron and Maurice Edu of Stoke City, defensive midfielder Michael Bradley (AS Roma), and forward Clint Dempsey (Tottenham Hotspur) their talent is simply too great to lose to an Antigua side whose best player forward Peter Byers plays in the third-tier of the American soccer pyramid.  Antigua do feature teenage defender Zaine Francis-Angol who plies his trade with Motherwell in Scotland.  The United States will win in Antigua and then at home against Guatemala on Tuesday to advance to the CONCACAF Fourth Round.

In Group Three, Honduras at Panama will go a long way to seeing if both teams will be able to advance to the Fourth Round or whether Canada will have an opening after defeating Cuba at home on Friday.  Panama are the pick to win and advance to the final round of qualifying.  Panama feature captain Felipe Baloy (Santos Laguna, Mexico) in defense, but their true talents are further up the pitch.  Nelson Barahona (Atletico Huila, Colombia) leads the midfield and the dual strikers are the feared Blas Perez (FC Dallas) and Luis Tejada (Toluca, Mexico).

The key match will be next Tuesday with Canada traveling to Honduras.  Canada bring, but Honduras will welcome the Canucks with a tough team top to bottom.  Defender Maynor Figueroa plays for Wigan Athletic.  The other stars play in the United States, including defender Victor Bernardez (San Jose Earthquakes), midfield talisman Boniek Garcia (Houston Dynamo), midfielders Roger Espinoza (Sporting Kansas City) and Marvin Chavez (San Jose), and forward Jerry Bengston (New England Revolution).  However, Espinoza will be out through injury. Canada feature captain and centerback Kevin McKenna (Koln, Germany), defenders Andre Hainault (Houston) and Marcel de Jong (Augsburg), and goalkeeper Lars Hirschfeld (Valerenga, Norway) from a team that has pitched eight shutouts in ten 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers played.  An attack featuring midfielder Atiba Hutchinson (PSV Eindhoven) and fast attackers Olivier Occean (Eintracht Frankfurt) and Simeon Jackson (Norwich City, England) will be able to replace the injured Dwayne de Rosario (DC United, USA).  Canada should sneak a low-scoring draw much like the 0-0 between the sides in June and advance behind Panama into the final six in CONCACAF.

In South America, the marquee matchup features 2011 Copa America winners Uruguay visiting first-place Argentina.  Uruguay have been severely off their game as of late, losing 4-0 in Colombia and drawing 1-1 against Ecuador at home in September.  Argentina are simply the much better side as of late, having defeated Paraguay soundly last month and stealing a road draw against Peru.  Argentina do not look vulnerable at home this year despite the punditry always criticizing their star forward Lionel Messi (Barcelona).  Uruguay are out of sorts, and their best striker Luis Suarez (Liverpool, England) has been receiving much negative media attention and a heavy workload at his club.  Argentina will win and extend their lead atop the standings.

Two other CONMEBOL contenders square off with Chile at Ecuador also on the slate.  A Chile side without the suspended Gary Medel (Sevilla) head to Quito to take on an Ecuador side that catches break after break in their home matches to maintain a very lucky 100 percent home record.  However, Ecuador have yet to allow a goal in Quito in the 2014 FIFA World Cup, and they have already won their first four matches at home, so why stop now?  Ecuador will win.

In the other two matches on CONMEBOL Matchday Nine, Bolivia are the pick at home against Peru and Colombia will run rampant on Paraguay at home.

Quick picks for CONMEBOL Matchday Ten: Uruguay tie at Bolivia, Venezuela defeat Ecuador at home, Paraguay defeat Peru at home, and Argentina tie at Chile.

Match Previews:
http://www.ticotimes.net/Current-Edition/News-Briefs/To-keep-World-Cup-hopes-alive-Costa-Rica-must-not-stumble-in-El-Salvador_Thursday-October-11-2012
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1783170/index.html?intcmp=newsreader_news_box_4
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1783123/index.html?intcmp=newsreader_news_box_2
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/news/newsid=1782787/index.html?intcmp=newsreader_news_box_1
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/blog/_/name/espnfcunited/id/1040?cc=5901
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/blog/_/name/espnfcunited/id/1024?cc=5901
http://www.soccerbyives.net/2012/10/klinsmann-usmnt-midfield.html
http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2012/10/11/wcq-preview-short-handed-us-look-avoid-antigua-trap
http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2012/10/11/wcq-preview-canada-not-overlooking-mystery-cuban-side