In Group B, two spots are left for progression to the AFC Fourth Round. South Korea merely need a point from their match against Kuwait, and Lebanon need just a point from their match at the United Arab Emirates in order to secure progression. However, a win by Kuwait would see them through to the next phase. If both South Korea and Lebanon lose, South Korea will advance at the expense of Lebanon.
In Group D, only one spot is left for progression to the next phase. If Saudi Arabia secure a win at Australia, they take the spot. However, if Saudi Arabia lose, the winner of the Oman-Thailand match in Oman will secure second place. If Saudi Arabia lose but Oman tie Thailand, Saudi Arabia will advance barring an overwhelming Australia victory. Pandemonium occurs if Saudi Arabia ties and Thailand wins. Both teams would end up equal on points, and the qualification would hinge on whether Thailand had won by three goals or more.
In Group E, Qatar and Bahrain fight for the last spot in the AFC Fourth Round. Qatar will advance with a draw at Iran or if Bahrain fail to win at home against Indonesia. The only way Bahrain qualify is with a massive win combined with a huge loss by Qatar. Bahrain need to overcome a nine-goal deficit in goal differential between themselves and Qatar.
The easy picks are South Korea and Lebanon from Group B and Qatar from Group E. The difficulty arises with the Group D pick. I foresee an Australia win at home coupled with an Oman win at home sending Oman into round four.
Match times are given in Central Time (GMT-6).
29 February 2012 (AFC Third Round Matchday Six)
Jordan at China 2:00 Guangzhou
North Korea at Tajikistan 2:00 Khujand
Saudi Arabia at Australia 3:30 Melbourne
Thailand at Oman 3:30 Muscat
Uzbekistan at Japan 4:30 Toyota
Kuwait at South Korea 6:00 Seoul
Lebanon at United Arab Emirates 6:00 Abu Dhabi
Qatar at Iran 7:30 Tehran
Indonesia at Bahrain 7:30 Manama
Singapore at Iraq 7:45 Doha, Qatar
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