Due to the long distances between Amman and Montevideo, and Mexico City and Wellington, these series take place over an eight-day period rather than the more typical five-day period offered by the international matchday windows. This is to compensate for long travel times and to allow for better acclimatization as the teams explore different parts of the Earth.
Mexico are the negative surprise package of the bunch. Few would have predicted that the team seeded first in North America at the start of the tournament would finish as low as fourth position. Even more surprising was the fact the Mexico were a mere three minutes from being eliminated in fifth position before the United States of America turned around their final qualifier against Panama in the final moments to deny Panama a berth in these intercontinental playoffs. Mexico have just switched to their fourth different coach since September. In fact, no foreign-based players have been called up by the new coach due to the lack of good performances in qualifying produced by the European-based stars of El Tri. Even the formerly mystical home field advantage of the Estadio Azteca has been shredded by a run of only one victory from five home qualifiers in 2013. However, the all-local side did defeat Finland in a recent friendly. They also are somewhat familiar with New Zealand, having played and won two friendlies against the Kiwis in the past four years. The big question for Mexico is whether their inexperienced midfield can hold up over the two legs of this tie. Only one midfielder on the roster has even ten caps.
New Zealand are the obvious participant in this round as few expected any other Oceania side to truly push New Zealand for superiority in qualifying. Now, after eight months without playing a competitive match since finishing the Oceania campaign in March, the Kiwis finally get to face the pressure of a match that counts. In 2009, New Zealand were able to hold Bahrain away before securing a classic 1-0 victory at home in the Westpac Stadium. Unfortunately, New Zealand are missing stalwart captain and fullback Winston Reid due to injury, so they will have to make up for his absence. With only six matches played this year, are the players familiar enough with each other to overcome Mexico? New Zealand did defeat Saudi Arabia away two months ago. With a roster full of A-League players along with England-based Tommy Smith and Chris Wood, the Kiwis will be looking to stay solid defensively on the road in the first leg.
Jordan are the positive surprise package of the bunch. Few would have predicted that the team seeded thirteenth in Asia at the start of the tournament would finish in fifth position. It was even a bit of a surprise to some that Jordan made it into the final ten given that they were in an AFC Third Round group with China and Iraq with only two tickets available to the final round. Jordan have navigated through eighteen fixtures so far, including a pair of home-and-away aggregate-goals series such as the one they now face against Uruguay. Jordan have won penalty shootouts in each of the past two FIFA World Cups, defeating Kyrgyzstan in 2007 and Uzbekistan in 2013 to qualify for these intercontinental playoffs. No expectations will be weighing upon the Jordanians as they take on 2011 Copa America champions Uruguay. Nearly the entire roster plays its club football in either Jordan or Kuwait. Jordan have been impressive in two recent friendlies in the Middle East, defeating both the 2012 and 2013 African Cup of Nations champions by a score of 1-0. Zambia and Nigeria may not quite match up to the standards of Uruguay, but Jordan are in good form at the moment. They are unbeaten in their past ten matches, and have a record of ten wins and three draws at home in 2013.
Uruguay are the perennial qualifying underachievers of South America, but at least they are consistent in their bid to finish fifth place every cycle. Two of Colombia, Paraguay, Ecuador, and Chile manage to finish ahead of Uruguay alongside Argentina and Brasil, yet Uruguay always manage to stay ahead of the other two in order to claim fifth position. This time around with Brazil not taking part in qualifying, Uruguay managed only to surpass Paraguay, but that was enough. La Celeste have a ridiculously long history with the intercontinental playoffs. In 2001, Uruguay defeated Australia. In 2005, Australia beat Uruguay in a penalty shootout. In 2009, Uruguay defeated Costa Rica despite not winning their home leg at the Estadio Centenario. Jordan appear to be the weakest of the four opponents Uruguay will have faced, but nothing should be taken for granted. La Celeste's run to the semifinals of this year's FIFA Confederations Cup has really reinvigorated the national team. Still, for a team that since June has defeated France, Venezuela, Nigeria, Japan, Peru, Colombia, and Argentina, underestimation of their opponents Jordan is the likeliest source of trouble. Starting goalkeeper Fernando Muslera is out for this series.
Going by the ELO ratings, #24 Mexico are favorites to knock off #56 New Zealand for spot number thirty-one at Brasil 2014 while #7 Uruguay are huge favorites to knock off #59 Jordan and claim spot number thirty-two at Brasil 2014. I expect those rankings to hold true.
Mexico will win their first leg at home by multiple goals. Even if New Zealand manage to win at home, they will not win on aggregate. Uruguay are simply too strong right now and will win both legs in order to claim not only the final berth at Brasil 2014 but also a place among the eight seeded teams.
Match Previews:
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/newsid=2222779/index.html?intcmp=newsreader_news_box_1
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/newsid=2222441/index.html
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