Brasil 2014 Draw Procedure (Anticipated)

Although FIFA will not officially release their draw procedure until 3 December, these are my impressions of how the draw will be performed based upon past FIFA World Cup finals draws.

Brasil 2014 will feature a group stage comprised of eight groups of four teams each.  The thirty-two qualified teams will be split into four pots, each containing eight teams.  FIFA has already announced that Pot 1 will be comprised of the eight seeded teams.  Those teams include the host country Brasil plus the seven highest-ranked teams from the October 2013 FIFA rankings.  This is a departure from the method employed at Germany 2006 where past performances in FIFA World Cup finals played a part in the equation along with current FIFA rankings.

Pot 1 (ELO rankings are in parenthesis)
1. Spain (2)
2. Germany (3)
3. Argentina (4)
4. Colombia (6)
5. Belgium (18)
6. Uruguay (9)
7. Switzerland (14)
11. Brasil (1)

The other twenty-four teams will be divided so as to create an even geographical distribution among the eight groups.  There are nine unseeded European teams, two unseeded South American teams, five African teams, four North American teams, and four Asian teams.  The eight highest-ranked European teams will be placed into a single pot with the final European team finding itself in a special lot like Serbia and Montenegro did in 2006.  The team in the special pot will have to be drawn against one of the South American seeds so that no group ends up with three European teams.  The four North American and Asian team will comprise another pot.  Lastly, the five African teams will be paired with the remaining two South American teams in a seven-team pot with special rules in place to assure that no group ends up with two teams from South America.

European Pot
8. Netherlands (5)
9. Italy (11)
10. England (7)
14. Portugal (8)
15. Greece (17)
16. Bosnia and Herzegovina (24)
18. Croatia (23)
19. Russia (15)

Special Pot
21. France (12)

North American and Asian Pot
13. United States of America (13)
24. Mexico (22)
31. Costa Rica (31)
34. Honduras (44)
44. Japan (25)
49. Iran (29)
56. South Korea (42)
57. Australia (32)

African and South American Pot
12. Chile (10)
17. Cote d'Ivoire (21)
22. Ecuador (16)
23. Ghana (33)
32. Algeria (59)
33. Nigeria (30)
59. Cameroon (56)

I ran a sample draw to illustrate how the draw will proceed and how problems areas (the special pot and the two non-seeded South American teams) will be addressed.  Brasil as the host country are automatically placed into position A1 in the draw.  Then, the remaining seven teams from Pot 1 are drawn with each team placed in the next open group when drawn.  The seeded teams automatically occupy position 1 in their groups.  I drew Colombia (B1), Switzerland (C1), Belgium (D1), Spain (E1), Argentina (F1), Uruguay (G1), and finally Germany (H1).

Next up was the European pot.  Teams would be placed into the next open group as drawn but also assigned a position of either 2, 3, or 4 within the group.  I drew England (A4), Russia (B4), Bosnia (C3), Greece (D3), Croatia (E4), Italy (F4), Portugal (G3), and finally Netherlands (H4).

Next up was the North American and Asian pot.  I drew Japan (A3), Honduras (B2), Australia (C4), Iran (D4), United States (E3), Costa Rica (F2), South Korea (G4), and finally Mexico (H2).

Now, the problem areas need to be addressed.  France cannot be drawn into a group with a European seed, leaving Groups A, B, F, and G.  Chile and Ecuador cannot be drawn into a group with a South American seed, leaving Groups C, D, E, and H.

In my draw, I drew the special pot next.  France drew Group A and fell into position A2.

Lastly came the African and South American pot.  Each team would be drawn and placed into the next open group, meaning that if Chile or Ecuador were drawn into a South American-led group, they would bounce into the next European-led group.  If a South American team were to be one of the final three teams left to be drawn, it would immediately go into Group H as neither Group F or G would be available to it.  I drew Cameroon (B3), Algeria (C2), Ecuador (D2), Nigeria (E2), Chile (bumped to H3), Ghana (F3), and finally Cote d'Ivoire (G2).

My sample draw appears below.

A1 Brasil                               B1 Colombia                       C1 Switzerland                  D1 Belgium

A2 France                            B2 Honduras                      C2 Algeria                            D2 Ecuador

A3 Japan                              B3 Cameroon                     C3 Bosnia                             D3 Greece

A4 England                          B4 Russia                             C4 Australia                        D4 Iran

 

E1 Spain                               F1 Argentina                      G1 Uruguay                        H1 Germany

E2 Nigeria                            F2 Costa Rica                      G2 Cote d’Ivoire               H2 Mexico

E3 United States               F3 Ghana                             G3 Portugal                        H3 Chile

E4 Croatia                            F4 Italy                                  G4 South Korea              H4 Netherlands