Friday, December 6, 2013

Brasil 2014 Draw

The draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup finals was held today in Bahia.  The thirty-two qualifiers have been split into eight groups of four.  Each team will play the other three teams in its group one time each for a total of three matches in the group stage.  The top two finishers in each group advance to the knockout stages of Brasil 2014.

Italy were the European team drawn into Pot 2 and were then matched up with Uruguay from Pot X.  The draw out of Pot 2 was jagged, with Chile being drawn first and getting shoved into Group B with Brasil preventing them from Group A.  Next, Cameroon, the third team drawn from Pot 2, found themselves in Group A.  Ecuador came next out of the magically bowl, but with Group C occupied by Colombia and Group D already having its second team in Italy, Ecuador bounced all the way to Group E.  Whoever predicted the groups would be filled in the order D-B-A-E-C deserves a cookie at the very least.  The rest of the draw provided less confusion but just as much drama.

Group A
Brasil
Croatia
Mexico
Cameroon

Brasil will be expected to ease into the knockout stages against three underperforming sides that all managed barely to squeak into the finals.  Croatia will be without the suspended Mario Mandzukic in their opening match, but they were unlikely to grab points against Brasil in any case.  Cameroon's own former players are not optimistic about their chances, as seen in this interview with former captain Patrick Mboma (http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/newsid=2225545/index.html).  Can Mexico become the dominant side they were in 2011 and 2012 or will they remain the paper giants we saw in 2013?  The crucial match will be between Croatia and Mexico, though Mexico will now be favored with Croatian captain Josip Simunic suspended for the entire tournament.

Group B
Spain
Netherlands
Chile
Australia

An Australia side that has been in turmoil since qualifying in June will be put out of their misery quickly in this section.  Three teams from the top 10 in the ELO rankings are present in this group.  Netherlands disappointed at their last major tournament, the UEFA Euro 2012, but they had an undeniable offense in qualifying for Brasil 2014.  They flattened Hungary 8-1 in one match.  Spain have lost only three competitive matches since the UEFA Euro 2008 finals.  Chile were the second-best side in South American qualifying, and the standings would have reflected that had they just been able to avoid red cards in two matches against Colombia.  If Chile behave themselves and finish matches with eleven players on the pitch, there is no reason that they should not expect to go far.

Group C
Colombia
Greece
Cote d'Ivoire
Japan

This group is so even that all four sides must be at once celebratory and wary.  Cote d'Ivoire finally miss taking part in the Group of Death, and the golden generation will be looking to right the wrongs of major tournaments and opportunities passed with a berth in the knockout stages for the first time at a FIFA World Cup.  Ultra defensive Greece, who unlike Cote d'Ivoire actually won their continental title in the past decade, are also looking for a first round of 16 berth in a third appearance at the finals.  Japan are the class of Asia, but they looked outclassed at the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup.  Colombia are glad to be placed in a group with teams of such pedigree as Colombia will be making their first appearance on the global stage since 1998.  Colombia will be looking to wipe the disappointments of their quarterfinal exit to Peru at 2011 Copa America away.  Freddy Guarin is suspended for Colombia's opener against Greece.

Group D
Uruguay
Costa Rica
Italy
England

Uruguay were perhaps the team least deserving of a seed based on the fact that two teams below them in the CONMEBOL standings were not seeded, yet here Uruguay find themselves amongst the seeds.  Perhaps it is fitting that they were the team dealt the most difficult group of the opening round.  Uruguay's 1-0 victory at Venezuela in June began the resurgence that saw them catapult back into playoff contention, and after thrashing Jordan on the road they are back at the site of their triumph at Brasil 1950.  Italy tied Uruguay at the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup and qualified with games to spare, but sadly for the Azzurri, they failed to win either of their final two qualifiers, preventing them from obtaining a seed.  Italy also managed only a draw against England when the teams met at the UEFA Euro 2012.  Costa Rica are a team that deserve respect, a team which won all five home matches in the CONCACAF Fourth Round to finish second in that group.  Note that the Ticos, the side most used to warm weather, will be playing all three of their group matches outside of the four southernmost (and coldest) cities.  Note that the Ticos also earned a draw at Uruguay in qualifying for South Africa 2010 after losing the first leg of their playoff at home.

Group E
Switzerland
Ecuador
France
Honduras

How easily the world forgets that Switzerland are the only team to have defeated both Brasil and Spain in the past four years, otherwise known as the two top-ranked outfits in the ELO rankings.  Ecuador have home continent advantage, but it is unknown whether the emotions that will swirl as they play to honor the late Cristian Benitez will boost or hinder their performance at Brasil 2014.  France scraped by Ukraine in the UEFA Playoffs to get in, but this team is likely to be more united than the French side that fell to pieces in the dressing room at South Africa 2010.  Honduras, playing in their third finals, will perhaps never see a clearer path to the knockout stages and will be relishing their chances to get through.  Honduras and Ecuador will get a rematch of their ill-tempered 2-2 draw in a friendly last month that saw each side reduced to ten men.

Group F
Argentina
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Iran
Nigeria

Argentina, the power team in qualifying out of the power continent playing a tournament on the power continent, will be heavy favorites to get out of this group.  Argentina just beat Bosnia in a friendly last month.  Iran are a team that legitimately should not even be at Brasil 2014 given that but for egregious refereeing errors against Uzbekistan in 2012, Uzbekistan would have qualified in their place.  However, as Uzbekistan, a much stronger and more entertaining side are undeservedly not going to Brasil, the least Iran can do to honor them is to play decent football.  Bosnia are a joy to watch in attack, but they are unproven and appear much more susceptible to being dealt an early exit than they did early in 2013.  Home losses to Slovakia in qualifying and to the United States of America in a friendly, plus their difficulty in scoring one goal against Lithuania to qualify on the final matchday may have shaken their confidence.  They are the only side making a debut at a FIFA World Cup finals at Brasil 2014.  Nigeria, the 2013 African Cup of Nations winners, played three matches at Brasil this past summer at the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup.  With a healthy Emmanuel Emenike returning to guide them past Ethiopia in the final round of qualifying, the Super Eagles look poised to swoop into the knockout stages.

Group G
Germany
Portugal
Ghana
United States of America

The overblown Ghana-United States rivalry is back in full force.  Nevermind that Ghana failed to score from open play in the group stage of South Africa 2010 or that Germany crushed them 4-0 in their third match.  Somehow, Ghana actually created its first deserved goals of the tournament in their Round of 16 victory against the Yanks.  This after defeating the United States in the group stage at Germany 2006.  This after United States defeated Portugal at Korea/Japan 2002 in the group stage.  This after Germany defeated United States in the quarterfinals of Korea/Japan 2002.  This after Germany defeated Portugal for third place at Germany 2006 and in the group stage at the UEFA Euro 2012.  To say these teams are familiar with one another would be rather truthful.  Ghana finally have the Ayew brothers Jordan and Andre back in the fold, as well as Asamoah Gyan and Kevin-Prince Boateng, both of whom have returned from international retirement.  The Yanks won the 2013 CONCACAF Gold Cup and finished first in qualifying.  Portugal were miserable in qualifying, failing to beat Israel in two matches, but they found out that Cristiano Ronaldo has the capability of carrying them through two matches against Sweden.  Can he do it for three matches at Brasil 2014?  Germany, perhaps the best footballing country in the history of football with five FIFA World Cups to their name (three men's, two women's) always go deep in tournaments, and their current youth movement has advanced at a stellar rate.  It is no coincidence that two teams from the German domestic Bundesliga advanced to the 2013 UEFA Champions League final.

Group H
Belgium
Algeria
Russia
South Korea

Belgium, making their first appearance at a major tournament since Korea/Japan 2002, will be absolutely delighted with their group stage draw.  Les Diables Rouges are heavy favorites to advance out of this group because the outbreak of young Belgian talents in the past three years has astronomical.  South Korea did not even celebrate their qualification as they lost their final qualifier at home to Iran and backed into the finals on goal differential against the aforementioned unlucky Uzbekistan side.  Do not expect them to celebrate at Brasil either.  Russia are the clear favorites to come out of the group alongside Belgium, having just pipped Portugal to win their qualifying group, but disturbing results like the loss away to Northern Ireland should prevent people from being overly confident in the Russian team.  Algeria were fortunate to get through their equal in Burkina Faso on the most controversial of tiebreakers: the away-goals rule.  For a team that sat back and played for a draw in their final group match of South Africa 2010 when a win was needed, it is tough to see enough ambition to push them into the knockout stages.

As always, I am contractually obliged to give ridiculously early predictions about who will advance.  Let's go with Brasil and Mexico, Spain and Chile, Colombia and Cote d'Ivoire, Italy and Uruguay, Switzerland and Ecuador, Argentina and Nigeria, Germany and United States, and Belgium and Russia.  Very astute observation: I did include all six CONMEBOL teams.

Group Analyses:
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/final-draw/news/newsid=2240026/index.html?intcmp=newsreader_news_box_1

A: http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1637698?cc=5901
B: http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1640340?cc=5901
C: http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1640367?cc=5901
D: http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1640368?cc=5901
E: http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1640369?cc=5901
F: http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1640370?cc=5901
G: http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1640371?cc=5901
H: http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1640372?cc=5901

No comments: